The Weekly Economic Update

Minor deflation takes pressure off the Fed.
The Consumer Price Index retreated 0.2% for May, following a 0.1% decline in April. Energy prices fell 2.9% last month, leading the CPI downward. (Core CPI did advance 0.1% in May.) Across the last 12 months, the CPI has risen 2.0%, with core CPI up 0.9% – the smallest annual gains since 1966. While May’s wholesale prices were 5.3% above levels of a year ago, the Labor Department said that PPI fell 0.3% on the month, which was less than the 0.5% reduction forecast by economists polled by Reuters. Translation: the Federal Reserve has no compulsion to raise interest rates.^1,2

Will gold hit $1,300 this summer?
The precious metal got a little closer to that psychologically significant benchmark on Friday. Gold settled at a new record close – $1,258.30 an ounce. Since the end of 2009, gold prices have gained almost 15%.³

As tax credits expire, housing starts decelerate.
In real estate, the year-over-year numbers often tell the real story, rather than the “weather” indicated by the month-to-month statistics. So we should be encouraged by the fact that May’s housing starts were 7.8% above May 2009 levels. Still, they were down 10.0% from April to their lowest level in five months. The Commerce Department also reported 17.2% fewer permits for single-family home construction in May.⁴

Industrial output & leading indicators rise.
Factory production went north by 1.2% for May. The Conference Board’s leading indicators index gained 0.4% for May after a flat April. Across the last six months, the CB index has seen 3.9% growth.^2,5

Stocks move back into positive territory.
The S&P 500 closed the week at 1,117.51, the DJIA at 10,450.64 and the NASDAQ at 2,309.80. All three marquee U.S. indices went back to being positive YTD last week.⁶




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Citations.
1 – marketwatch.com/story/us-may-cpi-falls-02-on-lower-gas-prices-2010-06-17-83600 [6/17/10]
2 – cnbc.com/id/37725637/ [6/16/10]
3 – cnbc.com/id/37768097 [6/18/10]
4 – voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2010/06/housing_starts_down_in_may.html [6/16/10]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/may-leading-indicators-rise-slower-growth-seen-2010-06-17-104400 [6/17/10]
6 – usatoday.com/money/default.htm [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F18%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F18%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F18%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F17%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F17%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F17%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F19%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F19%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F19%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/18/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [6/18/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [6/18/10]
9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]