Weekly Economic Update March 19, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE“A pessimist sees the difficulty in every opportunity; an optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty.” – Winston Churchill     WEEKLY TIP If you are a caregiver, you recognize the role long term care insurance can play in funding the care of a loved one. If you are considering it for yourself, you should know that it is most affordable when you are in your fifties.     WEEKLY RIDDLE It is a short and simple word, and something that everyone needs. Put an ‘r’ on the end and you have a new friend, but if the first letter goes away, you are sad. What is this word?     Last week’s riddle: What word doesn’t belong in this group: blast, paper, castle, coin, box, storm.     Last week’s answer: The word that doesn’t belong is “coin” – you can put “sand” in front of all of the other words and end up with a new word.	March 19, 2012  PRICES Rise Most In TEN MONTHS Consumer prices were up 0.4% in February according to the Commerce Department, yet core inflation rose only 0.1%. A 6% jump in gasoline prices represented 80% of the Consumer Price Index’s biggest gain since April, while food prices were flat for the first time since July 2010. Economists polled by Bloomberg expected a 0.5% rise in CPI for the month. Producer prices also rose 0.4% last month, but prices for finished products were up but 0.1%. Annualized inflation was at 2.9% in February; annualized core CPI was at 2.2%.1,2 AN ILLUMINATING STATESIDE STRESS TEST Applying a hypothetical “doomsday” scenario of the Dow losing half of its value, joblessness at 13% and home prices at 1996 levels, the Federal Reserve put 19 major U.S. banks through its annual stress test last week and found that 15 passed: American Express, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BB&T, CapitalOne, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions, State Street, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo. Four lenders did not pass – the Fed concluded that Citigroup, SunTrust, Ally and MetLife would lose enough assets under the stress test scenario to pose systemic risk.3 CONSUMERS BUY MORE, SHOW LESS CONFIDENCE The Census Bureau noted a 1.1% rise in retail sales for February and revised the January gain north to 0.6%. Elsewhere, the initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for March showed a slight dip to 74.3 from 75.3 in late February.4,5 BEST WEEK FOR U.S. EQUITIES SINCE DECEMBER The NASDAQ? It went +2.24% on the week to settle Friday at 3,055.26. The Dow? Up 2.40% in five days to end the week at 13,232.62. The S&P 500? +2.43% to 1,404.17 at Friday’s close. More good news: the CBOE VIX settled below 15 Friday after touching a 5-year low. Crude oil was down 0.32% for the week to $107.06, gold down 3.25% last week to $1,655.80.2,6 THIS WEEK: Monday, Adobe Systems issues Q4 results. Tuesday, February housing starts figures complement earnings from Tiffany, Krispy Kreme, Oracle and Cintas, and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks at George Washington University. Wednesday, existing home sales figures are out for February as well as Q4 earnings from General Mills and Discover Financial. Thursday brings around round of initial claims, the Conference Board’s February leading indicators index and earnings from Nike, FedEx, Dollar General, Accenture and GameStop. Friday, we get data on February new home sales plus earnings from Darden Restaurants and KB Home. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +8.31 +13.94 +1.85 +2.47 NASDAQ +17.28 +16.75 +5.75 +6.35 S&P 500 +11.65 +11.72 +0.25 +2.04 REAL YIELD 3/16 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.09% 0.85% 2.16% 3.48% Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 3/16/126,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues.  If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Indexis an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.Citations. 1 – http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-03-16/February-inflation-consumer-price-index/53561880/1 [3/16/12] 2 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=7b65a645-53f2-4b26-8b37-7c9c88448197 [3/16/12] 3 – http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2012/03/16/investopedia77515.DTL [3/16/12] 4 – http://www.census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf [3/13/12] 5 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [3/16/12] 6 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/46758651 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F16%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F16%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F15%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F15%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F15%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/16/12] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/16/12] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/16/12] 9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Weekly Economic Update March 12, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE   “Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition.” – Adam Smith     WEEKLY TIP   Financial strategies sometimes need to be revised due to career, family or lifestyle changes. So review your saving and investing approach annually. Few people do; more people should.     WEEKLY RIDDLE   What word doesn’t belong in this group: blast, paper, castle, coin, box, storm.     Last week’s riddle: Two fathers and two sons shopped for computers at their local big box retailer. Each bought a PC, yet they bought only three PCs total. How could this be?     Last week’s answer: The shoppers were a man, his son and his grandson.	March 12, 2012   227,000 NEW JOBS, BUT JOBLESS RATE STILL AT 8.3% While unemployment levels remained unchanged in February, Labor Department data showed that nonfarm payrolls expanded by more than 200,000 positions for the third straight month. The private sector added 233,000 jobs in February, so it was basically responsible for the impressive net job gain. The underemployment rate (representing the jobless plus those settling for less than a 40-hour workweek) was 14.9% in February, a 1.8% drop from a year before. With such consistent job growth, the Federal Reserve faces less pressure to roll out another monetary stimulus.1 SERVICE SECTOR GROWS IN February The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI climbed to 57.3 for February, seeing a half-percent gain. A 3.1% jump in business activity/production and a 1.8% rise in new orders were nice highlights.2   OIL, GOLD END WEEK WITH MODERATE GAINS From Wednesday to Friday, gold futures rose $39.50 and oil futures $2.70. For the week, gains were actually modest: oil advanced but $0.70 on the NYMEX to $107.40 a barrel, while gold racked up a $2.10 gain to end Friday’s COMEX session at $1,710.90 per ounce. The price of unleaded gas was $3.76 a gallon nationally on Friday per AAA’s survey.1,3   LITTLE VOLATILITY AFTER GREEK BOND SWAP On Wall Street, March 5-9 mirrored the week before: the Dow pulled back (-0.43% to 12,922.02) and the NASDAQ (+0.41% to 2,988.34) and S&P 500 (+0.09% to 1,370.87) advanced. The market was still wary of the debt deal out of the EU – last week, 86% of investors holding Greek bonds agreed to swap securities issued by the Greek government for replacement ones worth less, and collective action clauses will force about 10% more of these bondholders to do so. While this seemingly opens the door for a new €130 billion EU/IMF rescue package for Greece, it could be the last bailout Greece receives.1,4   THIS WEEK: In addition to what goes on in Europe, we have a lot of stateside data. Monday, Urban Outfitters and Burger King issue Q4 results. On Tuesday, a Fed policy meeting concludes and February retail sales figures arrive. Wednesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in Nashville and Guess and Youku (China’s equivalent of YouTube) provide Q4 earnings. Besides new initial claims figures, Thursday offers February’s PPI and earnings from Ross Stores and Dole. Friday, February’s CPI arrives plus the initial March consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan; the iPad 3 also hits the shelves.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +5.77 +5.80 +1.05 +2.22 NASDAQ +14.71 +8.60 +5.03 +5.49 S&P 500 +9.01 +3.86 -0.46 +1.77 REAL YIELD 3/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.24% 0.98% 2.25% 3.48%   Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 3/9/121,5,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=e280f203-b968-4fde-b06c-075eaf9a5756 [3/9/12] 2 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [3/5/12] 3 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/03/09/data-points-energy-metals-552/ [3/9/12] 4 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [3/1/12] 5 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/9/12] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/9/12] 8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Weekly Economic Update March 5, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE   “We may encounter many defeats but we must not be defeated.” – Maya Angelou     WEEKLY TIP   Beware of being too risk-averse when it comes to planning retirement income. Some retirees have portfolios so conservative that their incomes struggle to keep pace with inflation.     WEEKLY RIDDLE   Two fathers and two sons shopped for computers at their local big box retailer. Each bought a PC, yet they bought only three PCs total. How could this be?     Last week’s riddle: Name the three English-language three-letter words that begin and end with the letter E.     Last week’s answer: Eve, ewe and eye.	March 5, 2012   A GAIN (OF SORTS) IN CONSUMER SPENDING The Commerce Department noted a 0.2% rise in personal spending in January along with a 0.3% rise in wages. However, real consumer spending was flat for the third consecutive month when adjusted for inflation. Headline personal spending rose 2.1% in Q4 2011. Many economists expect a comparable gain this quarter. In related news, the Bureau of Economic Analysis revised Q4 GDP north to 3.0% last week.1,2,3   DURABLE GOODS ORDERS, ISM INDEX DECLINE While the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index spent its 31st consecutive month above 50, it did dip 1.7% in February to 52.4 – well below the 54.7 consensus forecast among economists polled by Briefing.com. Last week, the Commerce Department said that hard goods orders decreased 4.0% in January (the expiration of the 2011 tax break on capital investment was likely a factor).2,3,4   HOME PRICES SLIP, BUT SALES CONTRACTS INCREASE The good news: pending home sales increased 2.0% in January according to the National Association of Realtors. Economists polled by Briefing.com had forecast only half that gain. The not-so-good news: December’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed a 3.8% monthly decline and a 4.0% annual retreat in existing home prices. 3,5   S&P & NASDAQ ADVANCE; DOW HAS A FLAT WEEK Friday, the DJIA settled at 12,977.57, the NASDAQ at 2,976.19 and the S&P 500 at 1,369.13. The Dow lost 0.04% from Monday to Friday while the S&P and NASDAQ respectively gained 0.28% and 0.42%. Retail gasoline prices were averaging $3.74 a gallon nationally on Friday; oil futures lost 2.80% last week to settle at $106.70 per barrel. Gold retreated 3.75% on the COMEX for the week to settle at $1,709.80 an ounce Friday.6,7   THIS WEEK: The data stream is pretty light this week, at least in terms of domestic economic news. Monday, ISM releases its February service sector index and we get Census Bureau data on January factory orders. Tuesday offers Q4 earnings from Dick’s Sporting Goods and Pandora Media. Wednesday, we have earnings reports from H&R Block, Hovnanian and American Eagle Outfitters. In addition to new weekly jobless claims figures, Thursday will bring Q4 results from Smithfield Foods, Williams-Sonoma, Quicksilver and Stein Mart. Friday, the February unemployment report comes out along with data on wholesale inventories and earnings from Ann Inc. (formerly Ann Taylor) and Del Monte.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.22 +7.55 +1.43 +2.52 NASDAQ +14.24 +8.30 +5.14 +6.51 S&P 500 +8.91 +4.64 -0.26 +2.10 REAL YIELD 3/2 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.24% 1.01% 2.15% 3.48%   Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 3/2/126,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations 1 – http://www.dailyfinance.com/article/consumers-spend-more-after-incomes-rise/1866063/ [3/1/12] 2 – http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/03/01/usa-economy-idUSL2E8E11BN20120301 [3/1/12] 3 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/02/27-02 [3/2/12] 4 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [3/1/12] 5 – http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2012/02/29/3054668/housing-slump-continues.html [2/29/12] 6 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=a88fef67-2cc0-41dc-8ce3-34d5cd866ed9&_nwpt=1 [3/2/12] 7 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F2%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F2%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F1%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F1%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F1%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/2/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/2/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/2/12] 10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]