Weekly Economic Update April 30, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE“Don’t ever take a fence down until you know why it was put up.” – Robert Frost     WEEKLY TIP A good will should propose at least a few executors, as there is always the possibility that your first choice for executor might not outlive you.     WEEKLY RIDDLE Four grown men decided to play on the sidewalk for three hours. No one chided them for childish or immature behavior; many appreciated the noise they made. They even went home a bit richer. What were these men doing?     Last week’s riddle: They have no bodies, but you could say they have tails and heads. What are they?     Last week’s answer: Coins.	April 30, 2012    Q1 GDP: +2.2% The federal government’s initial estimate disappointed many analysts, even with plenty of potential for upward revision later. After all, Q4 2011 had brought growth of 3.0%. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the Q1 estimate to come in at +2.5%. Personal spending rose by 2.9% for the quarter, with car sales playing the largest role in the gain; subtract vehicle purchases, and the consumption increase was 1.1%, the smallest in four quarters.1,2 KEY CONSUMER SENTIMENT SURVEY TOPS ESTIMATES The final April Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 76.4, 0.7% higher than the prior 75.7 reading. Economists polled by Briefing.com thought there would be no advance. March’s final survey had a 76.2 reading.2,3 MOre HOME SALES CONTRACTS INKED IN MARCH Pending home sales improved by 4.1% in March to reach their highest level since April 2010, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors. Another bit of good news was unexpected: February’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed prices rising 0.2% overall, the first advance recorded in ten months. Last week, Zillow said the median U.S. home value had increased 0.5% in March, the best monthly gain in six years. The sour note in last week’s real estate roundup was new home sales. The Census Bureau said they were down 7.1% in March. However, the median sale price was up 6.3% year-over-year.4,5 NASDAQ HAS BEST WEEK IN NEARLY 3 MONTHS The tech-heavy index rose 2.29% across April 23-27 to settle at 3,069.20 Friday. The Dow gained 1.53% across the same stretch to finish the week at 13,228.31, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.80% last week to 1,403.36 at Friday’s close. With one market day to go in April, only the Dow is in positive territory for the month.3,6 THIS WEEK: March personal spending data arrives Monday, and so do Q1 results from NYSE Euronext, Shutterfly and Anadarko Petroleum. Tuesday, ISM’s April manufacturing PMI is out, plus data on April auto sales and earnings from BP, Pfizer, Motorola Mobility, Sirius XM Radio, Broadcom, Chesapeake Energy and CBS. Wednesday brings news on March factory orders and earnings from Marathon Oil, MasterCard, Comcast, Time Warner, UBS, Barrick Gold, CVS, DreamWorks, Green Mountain Coffee, Clorox, Sunoco, Transocean, Visa and Whole Foods. Thursday, we get ISM’s non-manufacturing PMI for April, new initial claims data, and results from General Motors, AIG, Kraft and LinkedIn. Friday, the April unemployment report is released and Berkshire Hathaway announces earnings. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +8.27 +4.23 +0.16 +3.35 NASDAQ +17.81 +6.95 +4.00 +8.45 S&P 500 +11.59 +3.52 -1.21 +3.04 REAL YIELD 4/27 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.30% 0.81% 2.25% 3.48% Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 4/27/123,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Weekly Economic Update April 23, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE   “The path to success is to take massive, determined action.” – Tony Robbins     WEEKLY TIP   Take a look at your insurance policy and read the fine print about long-term or progressive illness in case you or a loved one are one day diagnosed with Alzheimer’s Disease, Parkinson’s Disease or other forms of neurological disease.     WEEKLY RIDDLE   They have no bodies, but you could say they have tails and heads. What are they?     Last week’s riddle: What is the beginning of sorrow and the end of sickness? Something you cannot express happiness without? Something that is always in risk, but never in danger?     Last week’s answer: The letter S.	April 23, 2012    WHAT HELD UP HOMEBUYING LAST MONTH? The National Association of Realtors said existing home sales fell 2.6% for March. A 1.3% drop in inventory for the month might have been a factor, and mild weather in January and February may have helped homes that would have sold in March sell earlier. Warmer January and February temperatures may have also skewed the numbers for housing starts: the Commerce Department said they slipped 5.8% in March. Now for some good news: building permits rose 4.5% last month to the best pace since September 2008, and Freddie Mac had interest rates on 30-year fixed rate home loans averaging just 3.90% last week.1,2 RETAIL SALES UP 0.8% IN MARCH This follows a 1.0% gain in the category in February. Did gas prices account for much of the increase? No. Minus gas and car sales, the March gain was 0.7%, and core retail sales (minus autos, gas, and home supplies) rose 0.5% last month.3 LEADING INDICATORS BACK TO MID-2008 LEVELS The Conference Board’s index of leading indicators reached 95.7 in March, getting closer to the 100 mark that would imply a healthy economy. The index rose 0.3% for the month with seven of ten indicators positive; interest rate spreads, building permits, stock gains and credit availability were the biggest influences.4 DOW BREAKS LOSING STREAK, GOLD PULLS BACK Across April 16-20, the Dow gained 1.40% to 13,029.26 (its first weekly advance in three weeks), the NASDAQ lost 0.36% to 3,000.45 and the S&P 500 gained 0.60% to 1,378.53. Gold futures fell $17.00 (1.02%) on the week, settling Friday at $1,642.10; oil ended the week at $103.05 after a 0.21% gain across five trading days.5,6,7 THIS WEEK: Monday, ConocoPhillips, Hasbro, Xerox, DR Horton, Netflix and Texas Instruments announce Q1 results. Tuesday, earnings from Apple, Baidu, AT&T, 3M, US Steel, Amgen and Aflac are out plus the latest Case-Shiller home price index and data on March’s new home sales. On Wednesday, earnings reports roll in from Sprint, Boeing, Caterpillar, Eli Lilly, AutoNation, Delta, Credit Suisse, Motorola Solutions, GlaxoSmithKline and Akamai, March durable goods data is out, and the Fed makes a policy statement. Thursday, the NAR gives us its latest pending home sales report, new initial claims figures are in, and results from Barclays, Pulte, Amazon.com, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Chrysler, ExxonMobil, PepsiCo, Royal Dutch Shell, Starbucks and Zynga round out the day. Friday, Chevron, Procter &Gamble and Merck offer Q1 results, and the BEA’s first estimate of Q1 GDP appears plus the final April consumer sentiment survey out of the University of Michigan. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +6.64 +4.62 +0.10 +2.70 NASDAQ +15.17 +7.06 +3.75 +6.70 S&P 500 +9.62 +3.62 -1.43 +2.25 REAL YIELD 4/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.24% 0.82% 2.27% 3.48%   Sources: online.wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 4/20/125,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Citations. 1 – http://www.omaha.com/article/20120419/AP/120419584 [4/19/12] 2 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/47072035 [4/17/12] 3 – http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2012-04/D9U6251O0.htm [4/20/12] 4 – http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/04/19/gauge-us-economy-rose-03-percent-in-march/ [4/19/12] 5 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/20/data-points-u-s-markets-93/ [4/20/12] 6 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [4/20/12] 7 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/04/20/data-points-energy-metals-555/ [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F20%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F19%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/20/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/20/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/20/12] 10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Weekly Economic Update April 16, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE “Physical fitness is not only one of the most important keys to a healthy body. It is the basis of dynamic and creative intellectual activity.” – John F. Kennedy     WEEKLY TIP Do you feel too financially pinched to contribute to an IRA? You could use your tax refund for that very purpose.     WEEKLY RIDDLE What is the beginning of sorrow and the end of sickness? Something you cannot express happiness without? Something that is always in risk, but never in danger?     Last week’s riddle: Karen is twice her brother’s age and half her father’s age. In 22 years, her brother will be half the father’s age. How old is Karen now?     Last week’s answer: Karen is 22 years old.	April 16, 2012    CONSUMER PRICES ROSE 0.3% IN MARCH Last month’s gain in the federal government’s Consumer Price Index matched the consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com and followed gains of 0.4% in February and 0.2% in January. Gasoline prices were up 1.7% last month. Core CPI rose 0.2%, so that put annualized consumer inflation at 2.7%, less than the 2.9% recorded in February. Headline producer prices were flat in March, while the core Producer Price Index rose 0.3% (the fifth straight monthly rise in core PPI). Economists polled by Reuters had expected overall PPI to rise 0.2% last month.1,2,3 CONSUMER SENTIMENT WAVERS April’s initial Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 75.7, slightly below the Briefing.com consensus projection of 76.1 and down from the final March number of 76.2. Frustration over gas prices may have had an effect.2 BEIGE BOOK: RECOVERY PROCEEDING NICELY The Federal Reserve’s latest snapshot of a dozen U.S. economic regions reported “modest to moderate” economic growth overall, with all 12 Fed districts anecdotally noting expansion. For the record, the Fed has described the recovery using the “modest to moderate” phrase in three consecutive Beige Books.4 OIL & GAS PRICES FALL; Gold RISES Friday, AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report had regular unleaded averaging $3.90 a gallon, down $0.035 from last week. On the NYMEX, oil lost 0.46% on the week to settle at $102.83 Friday; gold settled at $1,660.20 after a 1.85% weekly gain.5 BULLS BATTLE BEARS April 9-13 was a volatile stretch for the market. For the week, the DJIA went -1.61% to 12,849.59, the S&P 500 -1.99% to 1,370.26 and the NASDAQ -2.25% to 3,011.33. All S&P 500 sectors lost ground on the week as concerns about Spain’s debt and U.S. corporate earnings affected investor outlooks.6,7 THIS WEEK: Monday, Census Bureau data on March retail sales complements earnings from Mattel, Charles Schwab, Gannett and Citigroup. Tuesday, reports on March housing starts and factory output come in along with Q1 results from Yahoo!, Coca-Cola, IBM, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson and Intel. Wednesday offers earnings from Yum Brands, Bank of NY Mellon, eBay and Qualcomm. Thursday, Q1 results from Bank of America, DuPont, Morgan Stanley, Travelers, Verizon, Microsoft, Capital One and SanDisk come in plus March existing home sales data. Friday brings earnings from General Electric and McDonalds. % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +5.17 +4.72 +0.47 +2.61 NASDAQ +15.59 +9.05 +4.28 +7.15 S&P 500 +8.96 +4.25 -1.07 +2.33 REAL YIELD 4/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.25% 0.88% 2.31% 3.48% Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 4/13/127,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.Citations. 1 – http://www.nytimes.com/2012/04/14/business/economy/consumer-inflation-up-modestly.html [4/13/12] 2 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2012/04/09-13 [4/13/12] 3 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/47027476 [4/12/12] 4 – http://www.marketwatch.com/story/modest-to-moderate-economic-growth-beige-book-2012-04-11-148140 [4/11/12] 5 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=fadc5c34-4c33-4af9-90e2-9c80bb50cbcb [4/13/12] 6 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [4/13/12] 7 – http://www.cnbc.com/id/47040305 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F11&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F12%2F07&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F12%2F02&x=0&y=0 [4/13/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/13/12] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/13/12] 10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

April 2012 Economic Update

April 2012 THE MONTH IN BRIEF March brought gains and milestones. The NASDAQ ended the month above 3,000, which it hadn’t done in nearly 12 years. The Dow pulled off its sixth straight monthly advance, and the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 rose as well. Gas prices continued their march upward, but consumer spending did not fall. The real estate sector flashed some negative signals. Investors and economists alike mulled the effect that potentially decelerating economies in Europe and Asia might have on Wall Street. The U.S. economy, on the other hand, seemed to show further improvement.1 DOMESTIC ECONOMIC HEALTH Gas prices were putting the clamps on the consumer, right? Wrong. It seemed consumer spending was rising, perhaps partly in response to increased fuel costs. In fact, the Commerce Department said personal spending rose 0.8% in February (the biggest gain in seven months) even as incomes rose just 0.2%. As for that other really important statistic affecting consumers, the nation’s jobless rate had remained at 8.3% for February, although job growth was impressive once again (227,000 positions added to non-farm payrolls).2,3 Consumer sentiment was the proverbial mixed bag. The Conference Board’s survey slipped from February’s revised mark of 71.6 to 70.2. The University of Michigan’s final March survey came in at 76.2, up from the 74.3 reading of late February.4 Consumer prices moved in a pronounced direction – and that direction was up. The federal government’s Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% in February, the biggest monthly gain since April. Producer prices matched that increase. Annualized CPI was running at 2.9%, annualized core CPI at 2.2%. What role did gasoline costs play in all this? A major one. A 6% February rise in retail gas prices represented a significant portion of the advance in the overall CPI. Pump prices have climbed close to 20% since December, and a gallon of unleaded cost $3.93 at the end of the month, up 2o cents from the end of February. Even with this price pressure on consumers, the Census Bureau said retail sales were 1.1% better in February. It also revised January’s gain up to 0.6%. Durable goods orders also rose 2.2% in February.4,5,6,7 The U.S. manufacturing and service sectors were holding up well. The Institute for Supply Management’s March manufacturing PMI rose a full percentage point to 53.4, and its non-manufacturing index read 57.3 in February, an 0.5% gain.8,9 The Federal Reserve conducted its annual stress test of 19 big banks in March, and 15 lenders held up under the “doomsday” scenario (Dow losing half of its value, home prices at 1996 levels, a 13% jobless rate). American Express, Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, BB&T, CapitalOne, Fifth Third, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan Chase, Keycorp, Morgan Stanley, PNC, Regions, State Street, U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo each got a thumbs-up. The Fed felt that Citigroup, SunTrust, Ally and MetLife would lose enough assets under the scenario to pose systemic risk.10      GLOBAL ECONOMIC HEALTH To what degree would the Eurozone economy slow down? Would Asian economies turn around their manufacturing bases? Looking to Europe, the signs were bleak. The Eurozone jobless rate ticked up to a post-euro high of 10.8% in March. In Spain, the unemployment rate was 23.6%; in France, it was 10.0%; in Italy, it was 9.3%; in Germany, it was just 5.7%. The key Markit purchasing managers index was below 50 for the eighth consecutive month in March, with analysts growing increasingly certain that the EU had slid into a recession.11 As for the key economies of the Asia-Pacific region, factory output was looking better. For March, official PMIs were in reasonably good shape in China (53.1, best since last April), India (54.7), and South Korea (52.0, a one-year high). India’s inflation rate accelerated in March for the first time since October.12     WORLD MARKETS Many major stock indices pulled back last month. That was not the case for the Nikkei 225, off to a roaring start in 2012 (+19.26% for Q1). The Japanese benchmark rose 3.71% last month. Germany’s DAX was up 1.30% in March and Australia’s All Ordinaries rose 0.73%. Several major indices retreated: the CAC 40 lost 0.83%, the FTSE 100 1.76%, the TSX Composite 2.41%, the Sensex 3.91%, the Hang Seng 5.57% and the Shanghai Composite 6.82%. Despite these losses, all of the above indices posted gains for the quarter. The MSCI World Index rose 1.02% in March and 10.94% for Q1 in USD terms. By the same measuring stick, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index fell 3.52% in March but rose 13.65% for the quarter.13,14 COMMODITIES MARKETS The hottest marquee commodity of March was (guess what) retail gasoline at +5.20%. Cotton went +3.85% last month. Most other key commodities lost their footing – most notably, natural gas. Those futures slid 18.73% in March, a descent helped by unseasonably warm weather. Oil futures lost 3.78% last month, settling at $103.02 per barrel on the NYMEX; for the quarter, prices rose 4.24%. Gold slipped 2.30% on the COMEX on the month and rose 6.71% on the quarter to wrap March at $1,671.90 on the COMEX. Copper (-1.40%) and silver (-6.23%) retreated after two strong monthly advances. RBOB gasoline futures rose 1.56% in March and the U.S. Dollar Index pulled off its first monthly gain for 2012 (+0.44%). Elsewhere, coffee futures sank 8.98%, corn lost 2.13% and wheat lost 1.09% for the month.6 REAL ESTATE March didn’t bring much improvement. Interest rates on conventional mortgages did go back under 4% after topping that mark at mid-month. Looking at Freddie Mac’s March 1 and March 29 Primary Mortgage Market Surveys, we see that mortgage interest rates did increase last month: 30-year FRMs went from 3.90% to 3.99%; 15-year FRMs went from 3.17% to 3.23%; 5/1-year ARMs rose from 2.83% to 2.90%; 1-year ARMs went from 2.72% to 2.78%.15 Existing home sales fell 0.9% for the month, while new home sales pulled back 1.6%. Year-over-year, the pace of residential resales had increased 8.8% while new home buying rose 11.4%. The Census Bureau announced that the median new home sale price had risen 6.2% in a year to $233,700. The National Association of Realtors noted the first year-over-year increase in existing home prices since November 2010.   However, the January edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index revealed that existing home prices had essentially reset to early 2003 levels. The index posted its fifth straight monthly retreat and was down 3.8% from 12 months before. The NAR also reported a 0.5% decline in pending home sales for February.16,17,18 LOOKING BACK…LOOKING FORWARD Fear seemed to take a holiday: the CBOE VIX was at 15.50 on March 30 after diving 15.90% for the month. The Dow ended March at 13,212.04, the S&P at 1,408.47, the NASDAQ at 3,091.57 and the Russell 2000 at 830.30.1 % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-MO CHG 1-YR CHG 10-YR AVG DJIA +8.14 +2.01 +6.97 +2.70 NASDAQ +18.67 +4.20 +11.34 +6.75 S&P 500 +12.00 +3.13 +6.04 +2.28 REAL YIELD 3/30 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.09% 1.00% 2.21% 3.48% Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 3/30/121,19,20,21,22 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. It would be mind-blowing if the market put together consecutive quarters like this, and even the most bullish of analysts don’t expect a repeat. Then again, Wall Street has surprised us many times. Some analysts think the current bull market may be due to run out of steam given the apparent economic sluggishness in Europe and the tendency of investors to “sell in May, go away”. Others think that since the S&P 500 fell 19.4% in October 2011 from an April 2011 peak (actually more than 20%, if you factor in intraday numbers rather than just the market close), we are actually more or less in a new bull market that began last fall. So would that be a baby bull within a secular bear, or something more lasting? Whether you think the glass is half full or half empty on Wall Street, the fact remains that stocks surpassed expectations in the first quarter of the year – and April may bring further gains.23 UPCOMING ECONOMIC RELEASES: Here is the slate of releases for the rest of April: the March ISM service sector index (4/4), the March unemployment report (4/6), February wholesale inventories (4/10), a new Federal Reserve Beige Book (4/11), the March PPI (4/12), the March CPI and the initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for April (4/13), March retail sales and February business inventories (4/16), March industrial output, housing starts and building permits (4/17), the March Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators index and March existing home sales (4/19), March new home sales, the February Case-Shiller home price index and the Conference Board’s April consumer confidence poll (4/24), March durable goods orders and an FOMC policy announcement (4/25), March pending home sales (4/26), the federal government’s first estimate of Q1 GDP and the final April University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey (4/27), and finally the March consumer spending numbers (4/30).