Weekly Economic Update July 23, 2012

 

WEEKLY QUOTE “Live out of your imagination, not your history.”      – Stephen R. Covey      WEEKLY TIP If you are serious about buying a home, getting pre-approved by a lender can give you a better chance of making a serious offer.      WEEKLY RIDDLE I nearly always lie on a surface, and I come in different shapes and sizes, often with curves. You can put me anywhere you like, yet there is only one proper place for me. What am I?     Last week’s riddle: Note this alphabetic progression: B, C, D, E, G. What letter should then follow as the sixth letter in this successive series?    Last week’s answer: P (the next letter in the alphabet with the same rhyming sound).

July 23, 2012      NO ADVANCE IN CONSUMER PRICES The federal government’s Consumer Price Index was flat in June, though the core CPI (minus food and energy prices) did rise 0.2%. Statistically, this was exactly what economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected. Annualized inflation was running at 3.9% back in September; it was just 1.7% in both May and June.1 HOUSING INDICATORS REGISTER HIGHS & LOWS According to the Commerce Department, housing starts were up 6.9% for June to the highest level since October 2008. The average interest rate on the 30-year FRM fell to a new record low of 3.53% in Freddie Mac’s July 19 survey, as did the average rate on the 15-year FRM (2.83%). Existing home sales, however, slipped badly in June – the National Association of Realtors said the sales volume slowed 5.4% to a pace unseen in nine months. Sales were still 4.5% improved from a year before.2 RETAIL SALES SLIP 0.5% in JUNE They have now declined for three straight months, and a retreat of that length hasn’t been recorded by the Commerce Department since July-December 2008. Analysts polled by Bloomberg News had forecast an increase of at least 0.2%.3 STOCKS SLIP FRIDAY BUT GAIN FOR THE WEEK Spain’s projection of recession into 2013 sent European shares down about 1% on Friday, with yields on Spanish bonds topping 7%. The Dow fell 121 points on the day, but on the week it rose 0.36% to close at 12,822.57 Friday. The NASDAQ (+0.58% to 2,925.30) and S&P 500 (+0.43% to 1,362.66) also posted five-day gains. After a 4.98% weekly gain, NYMEX crude settled Friday at $91.44 per barrel.4,5 THIS WEEK: Earnings season is in full swing, with McDonalds, Hasbro, Baidu, Halliburton and Texas Instruments offering results Monday. Tuesday, Q2 results are in from Apple, Broadcom, DuPont, UPS, Aflac and AT&T. Wednesday, the Census Bureau publishes June new home sales data and Ford, ConocoPhillips, Symantec, PepsiCo, Bristol-Myers, GlaxoSmithKline, Western Digital, Boeing, Caterpillar, VISA, WholeFoods and Zynga issue earnings reports. On Thursday, new initial claims figures are in along with the latest pending home sales report from the NAR and data on hard goods orders in June; earnings arrive from ExxonMobil, 3M, Pulte, Sprint, Expedia, Amazon.com, Starbucks, Amgen, Facebook, Dow Chemical, AstraZeneca and Credit Suisse, and a Commodity Futures Trading Commission emergency meeting will be held in response to the PFGBest scandal. Friday brings the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for July, the second estimate of Q2 GDP and earnings from Barclays, Merck, DR Horton and Chevron. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +4.95 +1.99 -1.49 +5.99 NASDAQ +12.29 +3.95 +1.77 +12.18 S&P 500 +8.35 +2.78 -2.24 +6.07 REAL YIELD 7/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.67% 0.62% 2.60% 3.10%   Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 7/20/124,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

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