Weekly Economic Update 01/07/2014

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE “Motivation is what gets you started. Habit is what keeps you going.”       – Jim Rohn           WEEKLY TIP As the year gets underway, look at your monthly expenses. Could some of these bills be lower? Are some of these expenses optional? Could you save money by cutting a couple of expenses out?        WEEKLY RIDDLE Throughout Friday, Hanna asks her mother the same four-word question. On each occasion, her mother gives her a different answer. What is the question?         Last week’s riddle: It softly goes up and down the stairs in many homes and office buildings, and yet it never moves. What could it be?     Last week’s answer: Carpet.	January 6, 2014      A MAJOR GAIN FOR A CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX The Conference Board’s monthly gauge of consumer confidence came in at 78.1 for December, beating the 76.0 median forecast from economists polled by Bloomberg. In November, it stood at 72.0. The index is way up from where it once was: its average reading was just 53.7 during the 2007-09 recession.1   HOME PRICES, HOME SALES CONTRACTS INCREASE While existing home sales have fallen in recent months, the National Association of Realtors offered some positive news last week – pending home sales increased 0.2% in November, a contrast to October’s 1.2% retreat. The October S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index showed a 13.6% yearly gain in property prices measured across 20 cities, improved 0.3% from the September edition; that is the best annual gain the Case-Shiller index has recorded since February 2006.1,2 FACTORIES HUM IN DECEMBER December’s manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management offered a reading of 57.0 – down from 57.3% in November, but still a mark of solid expansion in the factory sector. Analysts polled by MarketWatch expected the index to decline to 56.6.2   BULLS TAKE A BREATHER AS 2014 BEGINS Speaking in Philadelphia Friday, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke asserted that the economy has made “considerable progress”, and that there are “grounds for cautious optimism abroad.” His remarks didn’t give stocks much of a lift to end the week. From December 30-January 3, the S&P 500 lost 0.54%, the Dow 0.05% and the Nasdaq 0.59%. The closing prices Friday: Dow, 16,469.99; Nasdaq, 4,131.91; S&P, 1,831.37.3 THIS WEEK: On Monday, ISM’s December service sector index and the Census Bureau’s report on December factory orders arrive, and the Senate is expected to approve Janet Yellen’s appointment as Fed chair. Tuesday offers earnings from The Container Store, Apollo Group and Micron. The minutes from the December 17-18 Fed policy meeting will be released on Wednesday, along with the December ADP job-change report and earnings from Family Dollar, Ruby Tuesday, Monsanto and Constellation Brands. Thursday brings December’s Challenger job-cut report, the latest round of initial jobless claims, and earnings news from Supervalu, Alcoa, Texas Industries and PriceSmart. The Labor Department publishes its December employment report on Friday. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA -0.64 +22.99 +16.46 +5.82 NASDAQ -1.07 +33.26 +30.63 +10.59 S&P 500 -0.92 +25.49 +19.31 +6.52 REAL YIELD 1/3 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.75% -0.54% 2.29% 2.06%   Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 1/3/144,5,6,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/Consumer-Confidence-Index-in-U-S-Increased-to-5111693.php [1/3/14] 2 – marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendars/economic [1/3/14] 3 – thestreet.com/story/12201583/1/market-hustle-stocks-rebound-ahead-of-bernanke-speech.html [1/3/14] 4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [1/3/14] 5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [1/3/14] 6 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F3%2F13&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F2%2F09&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=1%2F2%2F04&x=0&y=0 [1/3/14] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [1/3/14] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [1/3/14]

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Update 12/31/13

WEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE “How wonderful it is that nobody need wait a single moment before starting to improve the world.”       – Anne Frank           WEEKLY TIP Here’s a New Year’s resolution worth considering: maxing out your annual contributions to retirement accounts in 2014. If you haven’t been doing this, see if you can do it next year.        WEEKLY RIDDLE It softly goes up and down the stairs in many homes and office buildings, and yet it never moves. What could it be?         Last week’s riddle: It is in seconds, seasons, centuries and minutes, but you won’t find it in years, decades or days. What is it?     Last week’s answer: The letter N.	December 30, 2013      A HOLIDAY SHOPPING SEASON TO CELEBRATE Good news from the Commerce Department: November brought a healthy 0.5% gain in personal spending (matching the consensus forecast of economists polled by Briefing.com) and a 0.2% rise in personal income that offset the 0.1% retreat in October. SpendingPulse, which tracks online and in-store retail purchases, says that retail sales increased 3.5% during the holiday season. It reports that 2013’s holiday spending was 2.3% greater than in 2012; the International Council of Shopping Centers puts the gain at 2.7%.1,2   NO CHANGE IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT Against expectations, the University of Michigan’s final December consumer sentiment index came in at 82.5 – exactly where it was at the end of November. Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com had projected the index to end 2013 at 83.3.1 NEW HOME SALES DOWN, BUT UP FROM SUMMER November’s 2.1% dip in new home buying seemed to reflect buyers adjusting to higher mortgage rates. Still, the pace of new home purchases (a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 464,000) was up nicely from July and August (when it was below 400,000). In November, new home sales were up 17% from a year ago; the Commerce Department noted a median price of $270,900, representing a 10.6% year-over-year gain.3   MORE DEMAND FOR DURABLES Orders for hard goods were up 3.5% in November, 1.2% with transportation orders removed. The Census Bureau revised its October durable goods report to show an 0.7% overall retreat.1   STOCKS POST WEEKLY GAINS A short trading week saw the S&P 500 advancing another 1.27% to 1,841.40, the Dow climbing 1.59% to 16,478.41 and the NASDAQ gaining 1.26% to 4,156.59.4,5,6 THIS WEEK: Monday, the National Association of Realtors puts out its November pending home sales report. October’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index and the Conference Board’s December consumer confidence index both appear on Tuesday; New Year’s Eve is a regular trading day for both the NYSE and NASDAQ, but the U.S. bond market should wrap things up at 2:00pm EST. U.S. financial markets are closed Wednesday (New Year’s Day). ISM’s December manufacturing PMI is the big news item on Thursday, with weekly jobless claims figures also being released. Friday, the Commerce Department issues data on December car and truck sales. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +25.75 +25.82 +18.70 +5.96 NASDAQ +37.66 +39.21 +34.33 +11.07 S&P 500 +29.11 +29.85 +22.20 +6.80 REAL YIELD 12/27 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.80% -0.73% 2.03% 1.94%   Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/27/134,5,6,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/12/23-27 [12/27/13] 2 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-26/u-s-holiday-sales-rise-3-5-spendingpulse-says.html [12/26/13] 3 – marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-approach-fastest-pace-since-2008-2013-12-24 [12/24/13] 4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow [12/27/13] 5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [12/27/13] 6 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F27%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F26%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F26%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F26%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F26%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F26%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F26%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/27/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/27/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/27/13]

 

Weekly Economic Update 12/23/13

WWEEKLY ECONOMIC UPDATE
WEEKLY QUOTE “A man with ambition and love for his blessings here on earth is ever so alive.”       – Pearl Bailey           WEEKLY TIP Some retirees don’t realize that a portion of Social Security income may be taxable. If you receive income from other sources, some of your Social Security benefits may be taxed if your modified adjusted gross income (MAGI) exceeds a certain amount.        WEEKLY RIDDLE It is in seconds, seasons, centuries and minutes, but you won’t find in years, decades or days. What is it?         Last week’s riddle: I have a bank, yet no cash. I can run, but can’t walk. I have a bed, but never sleep. I have a mouth, but ingest no meals. What am I?     Last week’s answer: A river.	December 23, 2013      FED MAKES ITS MOVE, STOCKS MOVE NORTH In a 9-1 vote last Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials elected to taper the central bank’s monthly economic stimulus beginning in January. The taper was relatively minor – a cut of $10 billion to $75 billion – and the surprise announcement set off a major rally on Wall Street, with the Dow closing 292 points higher on the day. Both the Fed and investors seemed to think the move was warranted; it certainly removed a degree of uncertainty from the market. The Fed’s December 18 policy statement also noted its intention to keep the benchmark interest rate at the present historic lows “well past the time” the jobless rate reaches the central bank’s 6.5% target.1,2   FEWER HOMES SOLD, MORE GROUND BROKEN Existing home sales fell 4.3% last month, and there was no annualized gain in home buying last month for the first time in more than two years. Was the November report from the National Association of Realtors an anomaly, or a sign that a red-hot housing market is cooling off a bit? NAR’s December and January reports may offer further clues. New construction certainly heated up in November: housing starts soared 22.7%, the best monthly advance since January 1990.3 CPI FLAT IN NOVEMBER; Q3 GDP REVISED UPWARD Economists polled by Briefing.com thought the Consumer Price Index would tick up 0.1% in November; instead, it didn’t budge. (The core CPI did rise 0.2%.) Another important economic indicator communicated a welcome gain: the economy grew 4.1% in the third quarter, according to the final estimate of the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The BEA’s previous estimate put Q3 GDP at 3.6%.3,4   S&P 500 HAS BEST WEEK SINCE MID-OCTOBER The broad benchmark closed at 1,818.55 Friday, gaining 2.44% in five days. Weekly gains for the DJIA (2.96%) and NASDAQ (2.59%) were even greater. The NASDAQ wrapped up the week at 4,104.74, the DJIA at 16,221.72.5 THIS WEEK: The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for December appears Monday, and so does the Commerce Department’s report on November personal spending. Reports on November new home sales, November hard goods orders and the October FHFA Housing Price Index arrive Tuesday, which is also Christmas Eve (the NYSE and NASDAQ will close at 1:00pm EST). All U.S. financial markets will be closed Wednesday in observance of the Christmas holiday. Markets resume trading Thursday, with the latest initial jobless claims data being released. Nothing major is slated for Friday. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +23.79 +21.86 +17.82 +5.78 NASDAQ +35.94 +34.56 +32.48 +11.04 S&P 500 +27.49 +25.97 +20.96 +6.70 REAL YIELD 12/20 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.73% -0.69% 1.98% 1.95%   Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/20/136,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – nj.com/business/index.ssf/2013/12/stocks_surge_after_fed_announc.html [12/18/13] 2 – marketwatch.com/story/fed-cuts-bond-buying-program-to-75-billion-2013-12-18 [12/18/13] 3 – investorplace.com/2013/12/gdp-inflation-housing-economic-data/#.UrTDwOJljs8 [12/20/13] 4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/12/16-20 [12/20/13] 5 – thestreet.com/story/12162639/1/stocks-gain-us-growth-hints-at-santa-claus-rally.html [12/20/13] 6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F20%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F19%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F19%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F19%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F19%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F19%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F19%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/20/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/20/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/20/13]

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Update 12/18/13

WEEKLY QUOTE “I learned that courage was not the absence of fear, but the triumph over it.”       – Nelson Mandela           WEEKLY TIP If you marry before the end of 2013, the IRS will consider you married for the entire tax year. So when you send in your 2013 federal return, you will either have to file as married filing jointly or married filing separately.        WEEKLY RIDDLE I have a bank, yet no cash. I can run, but can’t walk. I have a bed, but never sleep. I have a mouth, but ingest no meals. What am I?         Last week’s riddle: What has one eye and yet can’t see?     Last week’s answer: A sewing needle.	December 16, 2013      “MINI-BARGAIN” PASSES HOUSE, HEADS FOR SENATE Last week, the congressional budget committee headed by Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) and Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) succeeded where its 2011 predecessor had failed – it reached a deal, albeit a small-scale one. The House passed its budget bill by a 332-94 vote Thursday night; the legislation heads for the Senate this week. If made law, it will reduce the federal deficit by $23 billion during the next 10 years while halving 2014 sequestration cuts to defense spending and non-defense discretionary spending. (Other scheduled cuts in mandatory federal spending will proceed.) This deal doesn’t raise taxes, and it doesn’t extend unemployment insurance, which could expire on December 28 for 1.3 million Americans. Federal spending would increase by $45 billion next year as a result of the agreement.1,2   FALL BRINGS BETTER RETAIL SALES The 0.7% November gain was the biggest recorded by the Commerce Department in five months and brought the year-over-year improvement to 4.7%. Minus auto sales, the gain was still 0.4%. October’s retail sales gain was revised up to 0.6%.3   PRODUCER PRICES RETREAT AGAIN The Producer Price Index declined 0.1% in November following its 0.2% dip for October. Economists polled by Bloomberg thought the headline PPI would be flat for November, instead of retreating for a third consecutive month. November did bring a 0.1% rise in the core PPI.4   ROUGH SLEDDING FOR STOCKS SO FAR IN DECEMBER Signals of an improving economy also brought worries about a December taper by the Federal Reserve. As a consequence, the S&P 500 (-1.65% to 1,775.32), NASDAQ (-1.51% to 4,000.98) and Dow (-1.65% to 15,755.36) all staged 5-day retreats.5 THIS WEEK: Monday brings the Federal Reserve’s report on November industrial output; also, Ben Bernanke speaks briefly at the Fed’s Centennial Commemoration. Tuesday, the November CPI comes out along with the December NAHB Housing Market Index. On Wednesday, financial markets around the world will be waiting for the Fed’s latest policy statement; reports on November building permits and September, October and November housing starts will arrive from the Census Bureau. Thursday, NAR puts out its existing home sales report for November, the Conference Board issues its November leading indicator index and new initial jobless claims figures appear; Nike, ConAgra Foods and Pier 1 offer earnings news. Friday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis makes its final estimate of Q3 GDP. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +20.23 +19.62 +16.51 +5.69 NASDAQ +32.50 +33.72 +31.94 +10.53 S&P 500 +24.48 +25.07 +20.36 +6.53 REAL YIELD 12/13 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.72% -0.73% 2.43% 1.91%   Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/13/136,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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«RepresentativeDisclosure»   This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 – swampland.time.com/2013/12/12/house-passes-budget-bill-to-increase-spending-reverse-some-automatic-cuts/ [12/12/13] 2 – washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2013/12/10/heres-whats-in-paul-ryan-and-patty-murrays-mini-budget-deal/ [12/10/13] 3 – marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rise-07-in-november-2013-12-12-8913022 [12/12/13] 4 – reuters.com/article/2013/12/13/us-producerprices-idUSBRE9BC0HJ20131213 [12/13/13] 5 – fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=c9057f47-0e42-42ab-b939-e66c8ff9f833 [12/13/13] 6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F13%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F12%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/13/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/13/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/13/13]

Weekly Economic Update 12/10/13

WEEKLY QUOTE “Imagination is more important than knowledge. For knowledge is limited, whereas imagination embraces the entire world, stimulating progress, giving birth to evolution.”       – Albert Einstein           WEEKLY TIP If you are close to retirement age, think twice about financing major purchases with debt. The less debt you retire with, the better.        WEEKLY RIDDLE What has one eye and yet can’t see?         Last week’s riddle: A palindrome is any word, phrase, or number that reads the same either forward or backward. Can you think of a palindrome word that, when spelled in all capitals, looks the same backwards, forwards, or upside down?     Last week’s answer: NOON.	December 9, 2013      GOOD NEWS ON MAIN STREET Unemployment declined to a 5-year low of 7.0% in November, according to the Labor Department; underemployment also reached its lowest level in five years. The economy added 203,000 new jobs last month, far better than the 180,000 forecast by economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters. October also brought a 0.3% rise in consumer spending, even with the Bureau of Economic Analysis noting a 0.1% slip in consumer income. Finally, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped 7.4%. The initial December reading of 82.5 was the best in five months.1,2   NEW HOME BUYING HITS 33-YEAR PEAK Surprising news from the Census Bureau: in October, the pace of new home sales was the strongest since 1980 thanks to a 25.4% boost. Even though sales slipped 6.6% for September, the annualized sales pace reached 444,000 units in October, putting the year-over-year increase in new home purchases at 21.6%.3   ISM RECORDS ADDITIONAL SECTOR GROWTH According to the Institute for Supply Management’s purchasing manager indices, America’s service sector expanded for a forty-seventh consecutive month in November. The downside? ISM’s service sector PMI dropped 1.5 points for the month to 53.9. Its manufacturing PMI rose 0.9% in November to 57.3.4   STOCKS PULL OUT OF A SLUMP After strong employment and personal spending data arrived Friday, the S&P 500 snapped a 5-day losing streak. The Dow gained 198.69 Friday. The week was not as terrific. While the NASDAQ rose 0.06% in five days to settle at 4,062.52 Friday, the S&P lost 0.04% to close the week at 1,805.09 and the Dow lost 0.41% to wrap up the week at 16,020.20.5,6,7 THIS WEEK: The data stream is light. No major releases are scheduled for Monday, but Fed officials Jeffrey Lacker, James Bullard and Richard Fisher will all speak at different conferences. Tuesday brings earnings from H&R Block and AutoZone, plus the October wholesale inventories report from the Census Bureau. Nothing major is scheduled for Wednesday. On Thursday, the Census Bureau provides retail sales figures for November and an October business inventories report; new initial jobless claims numbers will also arrive. Friday sees the release of November’s Producer Price Index. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +22.25 +22.53 +17.10 +6.24 NASDAQ +34.54 +35.90 +33.83 +10.96 S&P 500 +26.57 +27.66 +21.21 +7.01 REAL YIELD 12/6 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.77% -0.87% 2.23% 1.92%   Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 12/6/135,6,7,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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1 – reuters.com/article/2013/12/06/us-usa-economy-idUSBRE9B40KJ20131206 [12/6/13] 2 – thestreet.com/story/12140200/1/markets-rebound-as-unemployment-hits-five-year-low.html [12/6/13] 3 – tinyurl.com/lfb8os9 [12/4/13] 4 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [12/4/13] 5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [12/6/13] 6 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [12/6/13] 7 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F6%2F12&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F5%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F5%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F5%2F08&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=12%2F5%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=12%2F5%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=12%2F5%2F03&x=0&y=0 [12/6/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/6/13] 10 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/6/13]

 

 

 

Weekly Economic Update December 2, 2013

WEEKLY QUOTE “I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life, and that is why I succeed.”       – Michael Jordan           WEEKLY TIP If your business is past its inception stage, it isn’t too early to think about an exit strategy. You want to tackle this task at least a few years before the business is sold or transferred.        WEEKLY RIDDLE A palindrome is any word, phrase, or number that reads the same either forward or backward. Can you think of a palindrome word that, when spelled in all capitals, looks the same backwards, forwards, or upside down?        Last week’s riddle: I’m not alive, yet I grow. I need air, yet I have no lungs. I lack a mouth, yet water will calm me down. What am I?     Last week’s answer: Fire.	December 2, 2013      CONFIDENCE INDEX FALLS, SENTIMENT INDEX RISES Two respected barometers of consumer mood went different ways in November. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index came in at a disappointing 70.4, down from a revised 72.4 mark for October and well below the 74.0 reading forecast by Briefing.com. November’s final consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan rose to 75.1, topping the Briefing.com projection by 1.6 points.1   HOUSING INDICATORS LARGELY IMPRESS September’s edition of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index found house prices rising 3.2% for the third quarter, 13.3% YTD and 11.2% across the past 12 months. Building permits rose 6.2% in October, with the Census Bureau measuring a 13.9% annual gain. Pending home sales declined for another month: they fell 0.6% for October, the National Association of Realtors noted.1,2 DURABLE GOODS ORDERS DECLINE Overall hard goods orders slipped 2.0% in October, partly reversing the 4.1% increase in September. The silver lining? The Census Bureau found that October’s retreat was just 0.1% with transportation orders removed.1 NOVEMBER ENDS WITH FURTHER STOCK GAINS The NASDAQ was the frontrunner among the big three U.S. indices last week, rising 1.71% to 4,059.89. Both the S&P 500 (+0.06% to 1,805.81) and Dow (+0.13% to 16,086.41) realized tiny gains during the abbreviated trading week. Turning to the NYMEX, oil and gold both had poor Novembers: on the month, gold slid 5.46% to $1,250.60 an ounce and light crude dropped 3.60% to $92.72 a barrel.3,4,5,6 THIS WEEK: Monday, ISM releases its November manufacturing PMI and the Census Bureau provides September and October construction spending data. Tuesday, the Commerce Department releases figures on November auto sales. On Wednesday, ISM puts out its November service sector PMI, the Federal Reserve offers a new Beige Book, the Census Bureau issues long-awaited September and October new home sales figures, and ADP produces its November job change report. The federal government releases its second estimate of Q3 GDP Thursday; also on tap for that day are the November Challenger job cuts report, data on October factory orders, and the latest initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, the Labor Department issues the November employment report, the Commerce Department publishes data on October consumer spending, and December’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment index arrives. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +22.76 +23.53 +16.44 +6.44 NASDAQ +34.46 +34.79 +32.88 +10.71 S&P 500 +26.62 +27.53 +20.30 +7.06 REAL YIELD 11/29 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.60% -0.78% 2.60% 2.03%   Sources: CNNMoney.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/29/133,4,5,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/11/25-29 [11/27/13] 2 – dailyfinance.com/2013/11/26/case-shillers-housing-index-and-octobers-housing-s/ [11/26/13] 3 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/ [11/29/13] 4 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/nasdaq/ [11/29/13] 5 – money.cnn.com/data/markets/sandp/ [11/29/13] 6 – money.cnn.com/data/commodities/ [11/29/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F29%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F28%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/28/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/29/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/28/13]

 

Weekly Economic Update 11/25/2013

WEEKLY QUOTE “Always forgive your enemies; nothing annoys them so much.”       – Oscar Wilde           WEEKLY TIP If your income, expenses or financial commitments have changed recently, it may be a good idea to reexamine your retirement savings effort.        WEEKLY RIDDLE I’m not alive, yet I grow. I need air, yet I have no lungs. I lack a mouth, yet water will calm me down. What am I?             Last week’s riddle: What common English-language word becomes shorter when you make it longer?     Last week’s answer: Short.	November 25, 2013      CONSUMER & PRODUCER PRICES DECLINE Last week, Labor Department reports showed the Consumer Price Index down 0.1% for October while the Producer Price Index slipped 0.2% with help from a 3.8% dip in gasoline costs. The real news was the remarkably tame yearly inflation. In the last 12 months, the CPI has only increased 1.0% and the PPI just 0.3% (although the core PPI did rise 1.4%). What do these annualized gains represent? The weakest wholesale inflation since 2009.1,2   FEWER HOMES SELL IN OCTOBER Existing home sales fell 3.2% last month, according to the National Association of Realtors. This marks the second straight monthly decline. Higher mortgage rates, narrowing inventory and the federal government’s 16-day shutdown certainly influenced sales volume. The median sales price of an existing home was $199,500 last month, 12.8% higher than a year ago.1,3 RETAIL SALES IMPROVE October saw a solid 0.4% rise in the indicator, and that surprised analysts who thought the federal shutdown would hurt the headline number. Auto sales powered October’s gain, but Census Bureau data showed a 0.2% advance even with car and truck buying removed.1 S&P CLOSES ABOVE 1,800 While the October Federal Reserve policy meeting minutes revealed the possibility of tapering QE3 in “the coming months,” stocks still pulled higher on the week. The Dow (+0.65% to 16,064.77), NASDAQ (+0.14% to 3,991.65) and S&P 500 (+0.37% to 1,804.76) all shrugged off midweek dips.1,4 THIS WEEK: NAR releases its October pending home sales report Monday, complementing earnings from Fifth Street Finance and Wet Seal. On Tuesday, the Census Bureau issues September and October reports on housing starts and building permits, the Conference Board’s November consumer confidence index comes out, and the September Case-Shiller Home Price Index arrives; additionally, TiVo and Chico’s announce Q3 results. Wednesday brings the University of Michigan’s final November consumer sentiment index, the Conference Board’s October leading indicators index and the October durable goods orders report from the Census Bureau. All U.S. financial markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving. Friday is Black Friday, of course; the NYSE and NASDAQ will close at 1:00pm EST with the bond market likely closing an hour later. % CHG+ Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +22.59 +25.15 +19.93 +6.68 NASDAQ +32.20 +36.39 +37.67 +11.08 S&P 500 +26.54 +29.74 +25.12 +7.43 REAL YIELD 11/22 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.56% -0.71% 3.15% 1.93%   Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/22/135,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=620267 [11/20/13] 2 – marketwatch.com/story/us-wholesale-costs-fall-again-in-october-2013-11-21 [11/21/13] 3 – business.time.com/2013/11/20/u-s-existing-home-sales-fall-3-2-percent-in-october/ [11/20/13] 4 – thestreet.com/story/12120723/1/market-hustle-curb-that-enthusiasm-dow-hesitates-at-16000.html [11/22/13] 5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F21%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/22/13] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/22/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/22/13]

Weekly Economic Update 11/18/13

WEEKLY QUOTE “We become what we think about.”       – Earl Nightingale           WEEKLY TIP A good FICO score can really pay off. A credit score of 750 or higher may help you get a home loan at the best available interest rate, positioning you to save tens of thousands of dollars in the long run.        WEEKLY RIDDLE What common English-language word becomes shorter when you make it longer?             Last week’s riddle: I am only one syllable long and too heavy for one person to lift, but if you reverse me I am not. What am I?     Last week’s answer: A ton.	November 18, 2013      YELLEN EMPHASIZES FURTHER EASING While conceding that the Federal Reserve’s current stimulus effort “will not continue indefinitely,” Federal Reserve chair nominee Janet Yellen sounded decidedly dovish at her confirmation hearing in the Senate last week. “Supporting the recovery today is the surest path to returning to a more normal approach to monetary policy,” she noted, which global markets took as a signal that tapering was not in the immediate future. The S&P 500 hit a new record close after her comments Thursday; gold and silver futures and the MSCI Emerging Markets Index all rose 1.4% on the day.1   HEALTHCARE ENROLLMENT ISSUES LINGER While demand was reasonably high at the new online health insurance exchanges in October (975,000+ people found that they were eligible for coverage), total enrollment for the month was just 106,000. As tweaks continued to be made to healthcare.gov, President Obama announced that insurers don’t yet have to cancel plans that fail to meet Affordable Care Act standards. Friday, the House passed a GOP bill that would let insurers offer such policies to new customers as well as existing ones in 2014; President Obama has indicated he will veto this bill.2,3 EARNINGS GROWTH SURPASSES ESTIMATES As of Friday, 461 firms in the S&P 500 had reported earnings – and according to Bloomberg, 75% of them had beaten profit forecasts. Bloomberg projects S&P 500 earnings up 4.9% for Q3 and 5.8% for Q4.4 DOW…16,000? S&P…1,800? NASDAQ…4,000? Soon, the major U.S. indices could top those psychologically important levels. Friday saw another record close for the S&P 500: 1,798.18. The Dow settled Friday at 15,961.70 (also a new record close), the NASDAQ at 3,985.97. Weekly performances were as follows: S&P, +1.56%; DJIA, +1.27%; NASDAQ, +1.70%.5 THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from Salesforce, Tyson Foods and Urban Outfitters and the November NAHB Housing Market Index. Tuesday offers earnings from Campbell Soup Co., TJX, Best Buy, Home Depot and Medtronic. Wednesday, NAR publishes October existing home sales numbers, and the federal government issues the October CPI, the October FOMC minutes and the report on October retail sales; ADT, Lowe’s, JCPenney, J.M. Smucker, Deere and Staples announce earnings. Thursday, October’s PPI and new initial claims figures complement earnings from Abercrombie & Fitch, Target, Gap, Gamestop, Ross, Intuit and Dollar Tree. Friday, PetSmart announces Q3 results. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +21.81 +27.26 +17.57 +6.34 NASDAQ +32.01 +40.50 +32.56 +10.65 S&P 500 +26.08 +32.87 +21.18 +7.12 REAL YIELD 11/15 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.53% -0.80% 2.87% 1.87%   Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/15/136,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-13/asian-futures-heed-u-s-rally-as-yelen-boosts-treasuries.html [11/13/13] 2 – washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/13/what-the-obamacare-enrollment-numbers-really-tell-us/ [11/13/13] 3 – usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/11/15/house-cancelled-plans-bill/3576071/ [11/15/13] 4 – sfgate.com/business/bloomberg/article/U-S-Stocks-Rise-on-Fed-Bets-Amid-Industrial-4985720.php [11/15/13] 5 – fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=5f3ccc1a-1b74-482b-b7fe-37046d8e5fc4 [11/15/13] 6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F14%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/15/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/15/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/15/13]

Weekly Economic Update 11/11/13

WEEKLY QUOTE “If you can dream it, you can achieve it.”       – Zig Ziglar           WEEKLY TIP If you have worked for your current employer for just a few years, check to make sure that you are now fully vested in the retirement plan it sponsors.        WEEKLY RIDDLE I am only one syllable long and too heavy for one person to lift, but if you reverse me I am not. What am I?             Last week’s riddle: How many times can you subtract the number 75 from 7,500?     Last week’s answer: Once, because after the first subtraction, you will then be subtracting 75 from 7,425 and so forth.	November 11, 2013      SHUTDOWN DOESN’T DETER HIRING The Labor Department’s delayed October employment report showed the economy adding 204,000 new jobs last month. Analysts polled by Reuters had only expected a gain of 125,000. The unemployment rate actually rose to 7.3%, as those analysts had predicted. This was a nice Friday surprise for Wall Street, and it also made investors wonder if the tapering of QE3 could come before the end of the year. A solid November employment report could offer further grounds for that move.1   FIRST Q3 GDP ESTIMATE TOPS EXPECTATIONS In another nice surprise for Wall Street, the Bureau of Economic Analysis put third quarter growth at 2.8%, whereas economists surveyed by MarketWatch had projected a reading of 2.3%. In related news, a federal report showed factory orders up 1.7% in September, and the Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI rose a full point in October to 55.4.2,3 HOUSEHOLD INCOMES OUTPACE SPENDING The September consumer spending report was a bit of a disappointment. Personal spending increased 0.2% (economists polled by MarketWatch had forecast a 0.3% rise) while personal incomes rose 0.5%, suggesting that households saved more and spent less of what they earned. November’s initial University of Michigan consumer sentiment index came in at 72.0, down from the final October mark of 73.2.3 DOW CLOSES AT NEW PEAK Rising 1.08% on the day and 0.94% on the week, the DJIA settled at a new all-time peak of 15,761.78 Friday. The S&P 500 rose 0.51% across five days to settle at 1,770.61 at week’s end, while the tech-heavy NASDAQ lost 0.07% in the same stretch, closing Friday at 3,919.23. Incidentally, the S&P is now riding a 5-week win streak, its longest since mid-February.1,4 THIS WEEK: Earnings season is winding down, but it should still take center stage this week with light data coming out of Washington. Monday is Veterans Day, a federal holiday; bond markets are closed, but the stock market is open and NewsCorp, American Apparel, Dick’s Sporting Goods and Trend Micro will present Q3 results. Tuesday brings earnings from Dish Network, DR Horton, Dean Foods and Pandora. Wednesday offers Q3 results from Cisco and Macy’s. On Thursday, earnings reports from Wal-Mart, Kohl’s, Nordstrom, Williams Sonoma, Vodafone, Viacom and Agilent arrive along with new initial claims figures. Reports on October industrial output and September wholesale inventories appear Friday. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +20.28 +23.03 +15.25 +6.07 NASDAQ +29.80 +35.35 +27.58 +9.89 S&P 500 +24.15 +28.54 +18.04 +6.81 REAL YIELD 11/8 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.59% -0.85% 2.86% 2.10%   Sources: USATODAY.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/8/135,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – tinyurl.com/kvl7fbr [11/8/13] 2 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/11/07/third-quarter-gdp-report/3452547/ [11/7/13] 3 – marketwatch.com/Economy-Politics/Calendars/Economic [11/8/13] 4 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI&ei=oHF9Usj8IoOeiQLiKA [11/8/13] 5 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F7%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/8/13] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/8/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/8/13]

Weekly Economic Update November 4, 2013

WEEKLY QUOTE “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.”       – Muhammad Ali           WEEKLY TIP Trying to curb runaway household spending? Abide by this rule: if you can’t pay cash for it, you can’t afford it.        WEEKLY RIDDLE How many times can you subtract the number 75 from 7,500?             Last week’s riddle: How could Gail drive her car from Cleveland to Miami with a flat tire?     Last week’s answer: It was her spare tire that was flat, not any of the four tires she was driving on.	November 4, 2013      TAME INFLATION, 1.5% BOOST FOR SOCIAL SECURITY Yearly inflation hit a 5-month low of 1.2% in September – the Labor Department noted a 0.2% rise in the headline Consumer Price Index. The core CPI rose 0.1%, with yearly core inflation at 1.7%. (Producer prices dipped 0.1% in September after a 0.3% advance in August.) With inflation so mild, the Social Security Administration announced a mere 1.5% increase in monthly benefit payments for 2014.1,2   MANUFACTURING SECTOR KEEPS GROWING The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index rose 0.2 points in October to 56.4. This marks a 2013 peak for the index. American factory activity grew for a fifth straight month.3 RETAIL SALES HOLD UP; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DIPS While headline retail purchases declined 0.1% in September, the Census Bureau said retail sales were up 0.4% excluding autos. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index fell 9.0% to 71.2 in October; chalk it up to the shutdown.4 HOT & COLD NEWS OUT OF THE HOUSING MARKET Pending home sales fell again in September; the National Association of Realtors reported a 5.6% dip after a 1.6% retreat in August. August’s S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, however, saw a 12.8% annual gain in house prices across 20 cities.4 FED STANDS PAT, S&P RISES A BIT MORE On October 30, the Federal Reserve announced no tapering of QE3 and no change to interest rates. This helped the S&P 500 go +0.11% for the week and close at 1,761.64 on Friday. The Dow settled at 15,615.55 Friday, rising 0.28% for the week; the NASDAQ lost 0.54% in five days to settle Friday at 3,922.04.5,6,7 THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from CME Group, HSBC, Vulcan Materials and Tenet Healthcare. ISM’s October non-manufacturing index arrives Tuesday, along with Q3 results from AOL, Liberty Interactive and Tesla Motors. Wednesday offers earnings from Toyota, Time Warner and Icahn Enterprises and the Conference Board’s September LEI index. Thursday offers earnings from Wendy’s, Apache, Tim Hortons, Disney and Groupon, new initial claims figures and the federal government’s first take on Q3 GDP. Friday sees the release of the Labor Department’s October jobs report, the Commerce Department’s September consumer spending report, the University of Michigan’s initial November consumer sentiment index and Q3 results from Tesoro Logistics and Leap Wireless. % CHG Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +19.17 +18.01 +13.49 +5.93 NASDAQ +29.89 +29.87 +25.58 +10.30 S&P 500 +23.52 +23.40 +16.37 +6.77 REAL YIELD 11/1 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.50% -0.77% 3.14% 1.93%   Sources: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 11/1/136,8,9,10 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-30/consumer-prices-in-u-s-rise-as-forecast-on-gain-in-fuel-costs.html [10/30/13] 2 – blogs.marketwatch.com/encore/2013/10/30/social-securitys-2014-raise-a-modest-1-5/ [10/30/13] 3 – ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [11/1/13] 4 – briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2013/10/28-01 [11/1/13] 5 – usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/10/30/fed-october-meeting/3308411/ [11/1/13] 6 – usatoday.com/money/markets/overview/ [11/1/13] 7 – google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX%3A.DJI%2CINDEXSP%3A.INX%2CINDEXNASDAQ%3A.IXIC&ei=PRt0UqjpHuGuiQKpyQE [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=11%2F1%2F12&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F08&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F31%2F03&x=0&y=0 [11/1/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [11/1/13] 10 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [11/1/13]