Weekly Economic Update, April 18, 2011

INFLATION LIVES UP TO EXPECTATIONS
Economists polled by Briefing.com felt that the federal government’s Consumer Price Index would rise 0.5% in March, and it did. They thought core CPI would advance by 0.1% for the month; they also got that right. If this keeps up, America will be staring at 6% annualized inflation. Should we instead focus on the tiny core CPI increase that strips out food and energy prices? It is pretty hard to ignore energy costs given that the Producer Price Index rose by another 0.7% in March, with the wholesale price of gasoline rising 5.7%. The PPI has climbed 5.8% over the past 12 months. Economists and investors are wondering how much mind the Federal Reserve will pay to all this at its next FOMC meeting, scheduled for April 26-27.^1,2,3

KEY CONSUMER sentiment INDEX IMPROVES
The initial April Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 69.6, a 2.1% increase from the final 67.5 reading for March. Economists polled by Bloomberg News had forecast the index would only rebound to 68.8 from this 16-month low.⁴

NEW REPORTS ON RETAIL SALES, FACTORY OUTPUT
Retail sales increased by 0.4% in March, according to the Commerce Department. The year-over-year improvement was 7.1%. The asterisk: with retail gasoline sales factored out of the data, the overall March gain was just 0.1%. Factory output was up 0.7% in March, much better than the 0.1% rise for February. In a nice sign for real estate, production of construction goods was up 1.5% last month.^2,5

A SMALL RETREAT
The Dow couldn’t quite manage to extend its weekly winning streak to four last week. The marquee indices performed like so across five trading days: DJIA, -0.31% to 12,341.83; S&P 500, -0.64% to 1,319.68; NASDAQ, -0.25% to 2,764.65.⁶

THIS WEEK: On Monday, Citigroup, Texas Instruments and Eli Lilly issue earnings reports – and of course, April 18 is the federal tax deadline. Tuesday is a huge day for 1Q results – we’ll hear from IBM, Goldman Sachs, Intel, Johnson & Johnson and Yahoo, and March housing starts data will also arrive. Wednesday is just as momentous, with 1Q earnings announced by AT&T, Amgen, Apple, AmEx, Wells Fargo and Yum Brands … and in addition, we’ll get the March existing home sales report from the NAR. Thursday brings more attention-getting earnings from McDonald’s, Morgan Stanley, Verizon, GE, and DuPont plus weekly initial and continuing claims data and the Conference Board’s leading indicator index. Friday is Good Friday, so the financial markets will be closed (banks will stay open).

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+6.60	+10.74	+2.16	+2.15
NASDAQ	+4.21	+9.90	+3.77	+4.48
S&P 500	+4.93	+8.91	+0.47	+1.19
REAL YIELD	4/15 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.82%	1.49%	2.43%	3.52%

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 4/15/11^6,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared byPeter MontoyaInc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm / [4/15/11]
2 – blogs.forbes.com/heatherstruck/2011/04/15/march-cpi-increase-in-line-with-expectations/ [4/15/11]
3 – seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2014773317_apuseconomy.html [4/15/11]
4 – bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-15/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-rises-more-than-forecast-in-third-monthly-gain.html [4/15/11]
5 – marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rise-04-in-march-2011-04-13 [4/13/11]
6 – cnbc.com/id/42613371 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F15%2F10&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F15%2F10&x=10&y=18 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F15%2F10&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F13%2F06&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=4%2F16%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=4%2F16%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=4%2F16%2F01&x=0&y=0 [4/15/11]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [4/15/11]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [4/15/11]
10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=401k-withdrawal-rules&category=2 [1/10/01]

Weekly Economic Update, March 14, 2011

BEST RETAIL SALES NUMBERS IN 4 MONTHS
The Census Bureau says that retail sales climbed 1.0% in February. That matched the median forecast of economists polled by Bloomberg News. Department store sales improved by 1.0% last month and restaurant sales improved by 1.2% (the best monthly gain in that category in a year). Auto sales saw a 2.3% gain in February. Overall U.S. retail sales were up 8.9% from a year before.^1,2

LOWEST CONSUMER SENTIMENT IN 5 MONTHS
Sometimes economic releases seem completely contradictory. While retail sales have improved, consumer sentiment has dipped – at least according to the University of Michigan’s initial March survey, which came in at 68.2, way below the final February mark of 77.5. Soaring gas prices would seem to be a factor. The index had been making progress back toward its 2002-2007 average reading of 89.³

ROUGH GOING FOR OIL & GOLD FUTURES
Last week’s run from risk sent the prices of these commodities downward. Oil futures settled at $101.16 a barrel Friday – that was a 3.12% week-over-week drop. The decrease reflected concern over reduction of refinery capacity and demand in Japan, one of the world’s leading oil importers. As for gold, it had its poorest week since mid-January, with prices slipping $6.70 on the COMEX over five days – a 0.47% weekly loss. Gold settled at $1,421.50 Friday as its five-week winning streak was snapped.⁴

DOW HOLDS ON TO 12,000
In light of last week’s momentous seismic and political events, the ups and downs of Wall Street seem relatively trivial. Somehow, the Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ managed to remain above the psychologically significant 12,000, 1,300 and 2,700 benchmarks Friday. For the week, they performed as follows: DJIA, -1.03% to 12,044.40; NASDAQ, -2.48% to 2,715.61; S&P 500, -1.28% to 1,304.27. The CBOE VIX gained 6.56% last week.⁵

THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, there is an FOMC meeting at the Federal Reserve. Wednesday, we learn what happened with producer prices in February, and get data about February building permits and housing starts. Thursday brings the February edition of the Consumer Price Index and the Conference Board’s February leading indicator index, plus new initial and continuing claims data and a report on February industrial output. Also in the mix Thursday: before-the-bell earnings from FedEx and after-the-bell earnings from Nike. No major economic releases are scheduled for Friday.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.03	+13.50	+1.75	+1.80
NASDAQ	+2.36	+14.66	+4.01	+4.12
S&P 500	+3.71	+13.39	+0.35	+1.05
REAL YIELD	3/11 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.96%	1.49%	2.23%	3.52%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 3/11/11^5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/retail-sales-in-u-s-rose-1-in-february-most-in-four-months-on-job-gains.html [3/11/11]
2 – census.gov/retail/marts/www/marts_current.pdf [3/11/11]
3 – bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-11/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-index-fell-to-68-2-in-march.html [3/11/11]
4 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/03/11/data-points-energy-metals-468/ [3/11/11]
5 – cnbc.com/id/42035735 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F11%2F10&x=10&y=18 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [3/11/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/11/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/11/11]
8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
9 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=what-are-your-options-for-rolling-over-a-401k&category=2 [3/13/11]

Weekly Economic Update, February 28, 2011

STRIKING IMPROVEMENT IN CONSUMER SENTIMENT
Consumer sentiment is really rebounding – at least by the measure of the country’s two most respected polls. The final February Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 77.5, leaping north from January’s 74.2 mark to the highest reading in 37 months. The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index climbed all the way to 70.4 this month (it was at 64.8 in January) and its gauge of future expectations hit its most optimistic level since December 2006.^1,2

REAL ESTATE MARKET WEATHERS CHILLY JANUARY
According to the Census Bureau, new home sales slipped 12.6% last month. Yet the National Association of Realtors reported that residential resales improved by 2.7% in January, the fifth increase in the past six months. Existing homes have apparently become a bit less expensive: the December Case-Shiller home price index came out last week and showed prices slipping 1.0% from November across 20 metro areas.^2,3

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS UP 2.7%
Aircraft orders drove the overall increase in the category for January. Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast a 2.0% gain. Yet when you factor out transportation orders, durable goods orders actually fell 3.6% in January.⁴

CRUDE SETTLES NEAR $98, GAS PRICES SPIKE NORTH
By Friday afternoon, oil prices had retreated from Thursday’s $103 intraday peak. On the NYMEX, crude for April delivery settled at $97.88 a barrel Friday, capping a 9.11% weekly advance. Retail gasoline prices rose 5.9 cents overnight; the average price for a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.29 on Friday.^5,6

UNREST HAMPERS STOCKS
February 21-25 amounted to the worst trading week for the S&P 500 and Dow since November. Statistically, this is what happened last week: DJIA, -2.10% to 12,130.45; NASDAQ, -1.87% to 2,781.05; S&P 500, -1.72% to 1,319.88.⁷

THIS WEEK: Reports on January consumer spending and December pending home sales arrive Monday. Tuesday, we get the latest ISM manufacturing index and Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke speaks to Congress on monetary policy. Wednesday, we have a new Beige Book from the Fed and 4Q results from Staples and Costco. Thursday, we have the February ISM service-sector index, new initial and continuing claims figures and 4Q earnings from Kroger and Heinz. Friday, we get the February unemployment figures and the January report on factory orders.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+4.78	+17.53	+1.93	+1.40
NASDAQ	+4.83	+24.48	+4.32	+2.05
S&P 500	+4.95	+19.67	+0.39	+0.41
REAL YIELD	2/25 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.02%	1.51%	2.03%	3.52%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/25/11^7,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations
1 – marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-rises-in-february-2011-02-25 [2/25/11]
2 – blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/22/consumer-confidence-up-home-prices-down/ [2/22/11]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/new-home-sales-fall-126-in-january-2011-02-24 [2/24/11]
4 – blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/02/24/jobless-claims-fall-durable-goods-orders-gain/ [2/24/11]
5 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/25/data-points-energy-metals-464/ [2/25/11]
6 – money.cnn.com/2011/02/25/news/economy/gasoline_prices/index.htm [2/25/11]
7 – cnbc.com/id/41785394 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F25%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F24%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F26%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/25/11]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/25/11]
9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/25/11]
10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
11 -montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=why-choose-an-independent-financial-advisor&category=5 [2/27/11]

Weekly Economic Update, February 14, 2010

AN END IN SIGHT FOR FANNIE & FREDDIE
Friday, the Obama administration presented a plan to wind down Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac by 2018, with Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner citing “very broad consensus” that the government should play “a much smaller role” in the housing market. So what will replace them? The plan puts three options before Congress. In one option, the government would leave the mortgage market save for the VHA, FHA and other existing agencies. Two other options would set up “re-insurance” programs. A limited version would guarantee private mortgages only in economic or real estate downturns; another would provide a backstop for mortgage investments already guaranteed by private insurers. All three options would pave the way for higher mortgage costs. The Treasury and HUD have also suggested phasing in a short-term requirement for borrowers as Fannie and Freddie are unwound: homebuyers would have to put 10% down for any mortgage backed by the GSEs.^1,2

CONSUMERS FEEL MORE UPBEAT
The latest Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is in, and the initial February reading is 75.1, an improvement from the final January mark of 74.2. This is the best reading since June 2009. The survey’s current conditions index rose 5.0% to 86.8 – the highest it has been in 37 months.³

GOLD ADVANCES, OIL PULLS BACK
Gold prices climbed 0.86% last week to settle at $1,359.90 an ounce Friday – it was the best week for the precious metal YTD. Oil and natural gas prices fell to their lowest levels since November on Friday after Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak announced his resignation; natural gas futures fell 9.28% on the week, and oil slipped 3.88% for the week to settle at $85.58 per barrel on the NYMEX.⁴

DJIA CLOSES AT HIGHEST MARK SINCE 6/16/08
The Dow logged an eight-day winning streak from January 31 to February 9, and it has advanced in 10 of the past 11 weeks. The weekly performance? DJIA, +1.50% to 12,273.26; NASDAQ, +1.45% to 2,809.44; S&P 500, +1.39% to 1,329.15.⁵

THIS WEEK: Very little is scheduled for either Monday or Friday. Tuesday brings January retail sales numbers and a report on December business inventories, plus 4Q earnings from Dell, Barclays and Tesla. Wednesday offers the January Producer Price Index, the most recent FOMC minutes, reports on January housing starts and industrial output and 4Q results from Comcast and CBS. Thursday, we get the January Consumer Price Index, the Conference Board’s latest LEI, new initial claims numbers and earnings from Nordstrom.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+6.01	+20.99	+2.48	+1.21
NASDAQ	+5.90	+29.03	+4.84	+1.28
S&P 500	+5.69	+23.24	+0.98	-0.00009
REAL YIELD	2/11 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.36%	1.47%	2.09%	3.52%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 2/11/11^5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – blogs.abcnews.com/george/2011/02/the-end-of-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac.html [2/11/11]
2 – cnbc.com/id/41529671 [2/11/11]
3 – marketwatch.com/story/us-consumer-sentiment-rises-in-february-2011-02-11 [2/11/11]
4 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/02/11/data-points-energy-metals-459/ [2/11/11]
5 – cnbc.com/id/41537483 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F11%2F10&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F10%2F06&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=2%2F12%2F01&x=0&y=0 [2/11/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [2/11/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [2/11/11]
8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
9 – http://montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=wills-and-living-trusts&category=30 [2/13/11]

Weekly Economic Update, December 27, 2010

SPENDING & WAGES UP, SAVINGS RATE TICKS DOWN
Last week, the Commerce Department reported a 0.4% gain in personal spending and a 0.3% gain in personal incomes for November. The personal savings rate edged down 0.1% to 5.3% last month. In combination, those numbers hint at the possibility of stronger retail sales this holiday season – although durable goods orders fell 1.3% for November, much more than the 0.5% dip forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg News.^1,2

NEW & EXISTING HOME SALES IMPROVE
Existing home sales were up by 5.6% in November, according to the National Association of Realtors. One reason why: the median home price was $170,600 last month. Still, 2010 is on pace to be the poorest year for residential resales since 1997. At the current pace, 9.5 months worth of unsold inventory remains on the market. The Census Bureau reported a 5.5% improvement in new home purchases for November, with the sales pace down 21.2% from a year ago.^3,4

IS OIL MARCHING BACK TOWARD $100?
As crude prices topped $90 on the COMEX last week, the thought occurred to some analysts. Oil prices settled at $91.51 a barrel on Thursday, representing a 26-month high. The chairman of Libya’s national oil corporation told Reuters last week that “about $100 [per barrel] would be a fair price for the time being.”⁵

CONSUMER SENTIMENT EDGES UP
The final Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey of 2010 came in at 74.6, slightly above November’s final 74.2 figure and slightly below the 74.8 mark that economists had anticipated.⁴

STOCKS GAIN MORE THAN 1% FOR THE WEEK
The markets were closed on Christmas Eve, trading was light last week and there was little volatility affecting the major indexes. The Dow almost replicated the previous week’s advance, rising +0.71% across four days to 11,573.49 at the close Thursday. The NASDAQ gained +0.86% last week to close Thursday at 2,665.60. The S&P 500 advanced 1.03% for the week to finish at 1,256.77 Thursday.⁶

COMING THIS WEEK: As you might expect with the holidays, the schedule of economic releases is pretty slim. Tuesday, the October Case-Shiller home price index comes out, plus the Conference Board’s December report on consumer confidence. Thursday, we get the report on November pending home sales from the National Association of Realtors as well as the latest initial and continuing claims figures.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+10.98	+10.58	+1.27	+0.88
NASDAQ	+17.47	+17.45	+3.70	+0.59
S&P 500	+12.70	+12.15	-0.19	-0.38
REAL YIELD	12/23 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.08%	1.46%	2.07%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 12/24/10^6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ _Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – money.cnn.com/2010/12/23/news/economy/personal_income_spending/ [12/23/10]
2 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-23/u-s-stock-futures-maintain-losses-as-durable-goods-data-trails-estimates.html [12/23/10]
3 – chron.com/disp/story.mpl/ap/business/7350661.html [12/22/10]
4 – money.cnn.com/2010/12/23/markets/markets_newyork/ [12/23/10]
5 – cnbc.com/id/40785317/ [12/23/10]
6 – cnbc.com/id/40797201 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F23%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F23%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F22%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/23/10]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/23/10]
8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [12/23/10]
9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

 

Weekly Economic Update, December 20, 2010

OBAMA SIGNS TAX DEAL INTO LAW
President Obama signed the 2010 Tax Relief Act into law on December 17 after overwhelming passage in the House and Senate. The Bush-era tax cuts are thereby extended. Through 2012, the federal income tax tops out at 35% and taxes on dividends and capital gains top out at 15%. Next year, the estate tax returns at 35% with a $5 million dollar exemption, effectively permitting couples to pass estates as large as $10 million to heirs; tax-free charitable IRA donations also come back in 2011. Employee payroll taxes will drop from 6.2% to 4.2% next year.^1,2,3,4,5

A POSITIVE SIGNAL FOR THE FUTURE
The Conference Board’s leading economic indicators index (designed to be a gauge of economic momentum or lack thereof) jumped by 1.1% in November – the biggest gain in eight months. This follows a revised 0.4% advance in the index for October.⁶

PRODUCER PRICES OUTPACE CONSUMER PRICES
Consumer prices inched up 0.1% in November according to the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index. The core CPI rose 0.1%. The Producer Price Index, on the other hand, rose by 0.8% last month. Consensus polls of economists at Briefing.com had projected a 0.2% rise in the CPI and a 0.5% gain in wholesale prices.⁷

HOUSING STARTS TURN NORTH
They improved for the first time in three months. The Commerce Department said November’s housing starts were up 3.9% from October levels. The 555,000 annual pace topped the 559,000 consensus projected in a Bloomberg News survey.⁸

STOCKS ADVANCE
It was a pretty quiet week on Wall Street, and major index performance across the five trading days was as follows: Dow, +0.72% to 11,491.91; S&P 500, +0.28% to 1,243.91; NASDAQ, +0.21% to 2,642.97. As of Friday, the DJIA had traded within a range of 100 points for six straight market days – that hadn’t occurred since January 2006. All three indices ended the week at +10% or better for 2010.⁹

COMING NEXT WEEK: No notable releases on Monday or Tuesday. Wednesday, we have the latest existing home sales figures and the final estimate of 3Q GDP. Thursday, we get data on consumer spending and durable goods orders for November, new home sales figures for November, the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for December, and the latest initial and continuing claims numbers. That’s it for the week.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+10.20	+11.48	+1.13	+0.80
NASDAQ	+16.47	+21.23	+3.47	+0.07
S&P 500	+11.55	+13.49	-0.37	-0.60
REAL YIELD	12/17 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.05%	1.28%	2.11%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 12/17/10^9,10,11,12
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – edition.cnn.com/2010/POLITICS/12/17/tax.deal/ [12/17/10]

2 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703296604576005430598327972.html [12/7/10]

3 –tax.cchgroup.com/downloads/files/pdfs/legislation/bush-taxcuts.pdf [12/16/10]

4 – businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9K5IEN81.htm [12/17/10]

5 – npr.org/2010/12/10/131969824/some-worry-payroll-tax-cut-threatens-social-security [12/17/10]

6 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-17/u-s-leading-indicators-index-gains-most-in-eight-months-in-recovery-sign.html [12/17/10]

7 – thestreet.com/story/10947594/1/inflation-remains-subdued-in-november.html [12/15/10]

8 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-16/u-s-futures-fluctuate-starbucks-bank-of-america-climb-freeport-slides.html [12/16/10]

9 – cnbc.com/id/40722779 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/17/10]

11 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/17/10]

11 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [12/17/10]

12 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

13 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=8-retirement-tips&category=3 [12/18/10]

Weekly Economic Update, December 13, 2010

CAPITOL HILL COMPROMISE MEETS FLAK
House Democrats chanted “just say no” prior to a symbolic vote Thursday against the tax deal worked out between the White House and Republicans – a deal some Democrats see as a sellout. The accord would preserve the Bush-era income tax cuts for two more years, restore the estate tax at 35% with a $5 million exemption, cut payroll taxes by 2% for 2011 and extend unemployment insurance through the end of next year. Late last week, an addition was made to the agreement – an extension of incentives for wind and solar energy developers through the end of 2011.^1,2

OIL & GOLD FALL … GASOLINE PRICES RISE
Gold lost $21.10 last week to close at $1,384.30 per ounce Friday on the COMEX, while oil lost $1.40 across five days to conclude the week at $87.79 a barrel on the NYMEX. Retail gasoline prices just climbed to levels unseen since 2008 – last week, they were 35 cents higher than a year ago with a gallon of regular unleaded averaging $2.98 nationally. Industry analysts think pump prices will soon decline.^3,4

CONSUMER POLL SIGNALS HOLIDAY OPTIMISM
The preliminary December Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is in, and the result is upbeat – a reading of 74.2, a 2.6% improvement from the last index reading. This is the best number since May, and it beat the median estimate of 72.5 from economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.⁵

WHOLESALE STOCKPILES INCREASE ALMOST 2%
The 1.9% October gain topped the 0.9% increase forecast by economists in a Bloomberg News poll. In another sign that economy has picked up steam, the Census Bureau said year-over-year inventory levels have improved by 9.9%.⁶

ANOTHER WEEK … ANOTHER TWO-YEAR HIGH
At Friday’s closing bell, the S&P 500 stood at a fresh two-year peak of 1,240.40 after a 1.28% weekly gain. The blue chips also moved north: the DJIA rose 0.25% last week to settle at 11,410.32 Friday. The tech-heavy NASDAQ advanced 1.78% across five market days, closing at 2,637.54 at week’s end. Have you noticed the year that the Russell 2000 is having? As of Friday’s close, it was +24.22% YTD.⁷

COMING NEXT WEEK: Tuesday, we have the latest PPI, retail sales and business inventories figures plus an FOMC rate decision. Wednesday, the November CPI will be released, and the November report on industrial production. Thursday, we find out about November housing starts and get figures on initial and continuing claims. Friday, the Conference Board issues its November leading indicators index.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+9.42	+9.65	+1.17	+0.64
NASDAQ	+16.23	+20.39	+3.37	-1.25
S&P 500	+11.24	+12.52	-0.30	-1.01
REAL YIELD	12/10 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	1.16%	1.40%	2.18%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 12/10/10^7,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc., is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc., is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

 

Citations.

1 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703296604576005430598327972.html [12/7/10]

2 – washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/12/09/AR2010120906439_pf.html [12/9/10]

3 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/12/10/data-points-energy-metals-419/ [12/10/10]

4 – nytimes.com/2010/12/11/business/energy-environment/11oil.html [12/11/10]

5 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-10/u-s-consumer-sentiment-rises-more-than-forecast-to-74-2-in-michigan-index.html [12/21/10]

6 – dailyfinance.com/story/wholesale-inventory-reflects-increasing-business-confidence/19753360/ [12/9/10]

7 – cnbc.com/id/40610084 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F10%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F10%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F10%2F09&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F9%2F05&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=12%2F11%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=12%2F11%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=12%2F11%2F00&x=0&y=0 [12/10/10]

9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [12/10/10]

9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [12/10/10]

10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

Weekly Economic Update, November 29, 2010

CONSUMERS SPEND, BUT FED REVISES ITS FORECAST
The latest Commerce Department data shows consumer spending at +0.4% for October and +2.8% for 3Q 2010. Personal incomes rose by 0.5% last month, and the federal government revised its 3Q economic growth estimate north to +2.5%. Still, the FOMC minutes from November 3 weren’t encouraging: the Federal Reserve thinks unemployment could stay above 9% in 2011, and it feels inflation could remain below 2% until 2013. The Fed’s GDP forecast for 2010 was revised down to the range of 2.4-2.5%, which is hardly what is needed to reduce joblessness.^1,2

DEMAND LAGS IN HOUSING MARKET
Will that demand increase by next spring? Hopefully. Existing home sales were down 2.2% in October according to the National Association of Realtors. The Census Bureau said new home sales slipped by 8.1% last month, with the average price of a new home falling by a shocking 14.0%. Only 23,000 new homes were bought in the U.S. in October, and new home sales were down 28.5% in year-over-year terms.^3,4

CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 5-MONTH PEAK
The final Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for November rose to 71.6, the best reading since 76.0 in June and above the consensus 69.5 forecast of economists polled by Reuters. The sub-indexes measuring consumer expectations and current economic conditions were also at highs unseen since June.⁵

UNEXPECTED DROP IN DURABLE GOODS ORDERS
The Commerce Department reported a 3.3% decline in the category, on the heels of an upwardly revised 5.0% gain for September. The month-over-month drop in hard goods orders was the largest since January 2009.¹

NASDAQ ADVANCES DURING ABBREVIATED WEEK
The NASDAQ gained 0.65% across three-and-a-half trading days to settle at 2,534.56 at Friday’s closing bell. The Dow was down 1.00% for the week, closing Friday at 11,091.87; the S&P 500 lost 0.86% last week, settling at 1,189.40 Friday.⁶

COMING NEXT WEEK: Tuesday, we have the September Case-Shiller index of home prices and the Conference Board’s latest consumer confidence poll. Wednesday, we get the November ISM manufacturing report and the Fed’s December Beige Book, along with data on November auto sales and October construction spending. Thursday, we receive data on October pending home sales plus the latest reports on jobless claims. Friday, we get November’s unemployment report, the November ISM service sector report, and data on October factory orders.

 

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+6.37	+6.81	+0.29	+0.52
NASDAQ	+11.70	+18.52	+2.40	-1.20
S&P 500	+6.66	+8.97	-1.24	-1.18
REAL YIELD	11/26 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.75%	1.15%	2.05%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 11/26/10^6,7,8,9

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.

These returns do not include dividends.

 

---

 

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.

1 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-24/u-s-michigan-consumer-sentiment-increases-to-five-month-high.html [11/24/10]

2 – nytimes.com/2010/11/24/business/economy/24fed.html [11/23/10]

3 – curiouscapitalist.blogs.time.com/2010/11/24/housing-drop-more-bad-news-for-the-economy/ [11/24/10]

4 – census.gov/const/newressales.pdf [11/24/10]

5 – abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=12233911 [11/24/10]

6 – cnbc.com/id/40382919 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F27%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F27%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F27%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F25%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F25%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F25%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F27%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F27%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F27%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/26/10]

8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [11/26/10]

8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [11/26/10]

9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

 

Weekly Economic Update, November 1, 2010

WALL STREET AWAITS QE2, CONSIDERS 3Q GDP
Yes, QE2 – that is the media nickname for the expected second round of quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, a move which could boost long-term bond prices and lower long-term interest rates. Will the Fed buy more than $500 billion in Treasuries? Or less? The Wall Street Journal says the purchases will amount to “a few hundred billion dollars over several months.” The Fed will reveal its plans on Wednesday at the end of its November policy meeting. Meanwhile, the initial third quarter GDP reading is in: +2.0%. The good news: consumer spending in 3Q 2010 was the strongest in four years. The bad news: a 2.0% gain in GDP isn’t strong enough to reduce unemployment.^1,2

HOME SALES PICK UP
Existing home sales improved 10.0% in September – the biggest one-month leap since the National Association of Realtors began keeping track of monthly sales volume. The median price was still 2.4% below year-ago levels. New home sales rose 6.6% in September, with the median price up 3.3% from 12 months ago. In related news, the August S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed a year-over-year gain of 1.7% across 20 metro markets.^3,4,5

CONSUMER SENTIMENT WAVERS
The Conference Board’s survey of consumer confidence reached 50.2 this month, a 1.6% improvement. However, the final October Reuters/University of Michigan survey hit an 11-month low of 67.7, perhaps on election season pessimism.^6,7

DURABLE GOODS ORDERS RISE 3.3%
September’s overall gain was mostly attributable to a 105% jump in aircraft orders. Core durable goods orders declined by 0.6% on the month.⁸

MARKETS MOVE CAUTIOUSLY
Wall Street largely held its breath last week, waiting for November’s data and policy moves. The performance across the last five trading days of October: Dow, -0.13% to 11,118.49; S&P 500, +0.02% to 1,183.26; NASDAQ, +1.13% to 2,507.41.⁹

COMING NEXT WEEK: Monday, we have September consumer spending and construction spending data and the October ISM manufacturing report. Wednesday is also big – the Fed announcement comes at 2:15pm EST, and before that we get the ISM service sector report for October, plus data on October auto sales and September factory orders. Thursday, we receive the latest initial claims figures. Friday, we have the October unemployment report and September pending home sales.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+6.62	+11.60	+1.38	+0.26
NASDAQ	+10.50	+19.54	+4.00	-2.14
S&P 500	+6.11	+10.99	-0.25	-1.54
REAL YIELD	10/29 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.50%	1.50%	2.01%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 10/29/10^9,10,11,12
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com

Statler Financial Services, Inc., is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc., is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

 

Citations.

1 –online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303891804575576533845166848.html [10/25/10]

2 – abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=12000624 [10/29/10]

3 – businessweek.com/news/2010-10-25/u-s-existing-home-sales-rise-more-than-forecast.html [10/25/10]

4 – blogs.wsj.com/developments/2010/10/27/new-home-sales-stuck-at-rock-bottom/?mod=google_news_blog [10/27/10]

5 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-26/home-prices-in-20-u-s-cities-rose-less-than-forecast-case-shiller-says.html [10/26/10]

6 – theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/10/consumer-confidence-remains-weak-going-into-midterms/65173/ [10/26/10]

7 – dailyfinance.com/story/consumer-sentiment-dips-on-economic-concerns-ahead-of-elections/19694879/ [10/29/10]

8 – marketwatch.com/story/durable-goods-orders-jump-33-in-september-2010-10-27 [10/27/10]

9 – cnbc.com/id/39916022 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F29%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F29%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F29%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F28%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F30%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F30%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

10 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F30%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/29/10]

11 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/29/10]

11 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/29/10]

12 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]

Weekly Economic Update, September 20, 2010

CPI, PPI RISE MODESTLY
According to the Labor Department, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in August while the Producer Price Index advanced 0.4%. You can chalk up the increase to energy prices, especially summer gasoline prices: consumer energy costs rose 2.3% last month, and energy costs for producers went up 2.2%. Yet core CPI was flat in August, while core PPI increased just 0.1%. Over the last 12 months of data, core CPI and core PPI have respectively risen 0.9% and 1.3%.^1,2

CONSUMER SENTIMENT SINKS TO 13-MONTH LOW
The final Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey for September read 66.6, the lowest figure since August 2009 and way below the 70.0 forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch. The drop likely reflects consumer reaction to stock market and unemployment data earlier in the month.³

SMALL BUSINESS JOBS BILL CLEARS SENATE
Last Wednesday, the Senate voted 61-38 in favor of a measure that would create a $30 billion fund to encourage small business loans at community banks. The legislation would also offer business owners an immediate expensing deduction and give the self-employed a chance to deduct health care costs from self-employment tax on their 2010 federal returns. The Small Business Jobs Act is widely expected to pass in the House and become law.^4,5

GOLD & SILVER RALLY TO IMPRESSIVE HEIGHTS
Gold settled at an all-time record close of $1,277.50 per ounce on the COMEX Friday. The precious metal gained 2.5% last week. Silver futures settled at a peak unseen since 1980 on Friday – $20.82 per ounce.⁶

SEPTEMBER DEFIES EXPECTATIONS
Historically, September has been lousy for stocks – but not in the last few years. So keep your fingers crossed: the Dow has advanced 4.5% over the past three weeks.  The three major U.S. indices logged nice weekly gains from September 13-17, as follows: DJIA, +1.39% to 10,607.85; S&P 500, +1.45% to 1,125.59; NASDAQ, +3.26% to 2,315.61.⁷

COMING NEXT WEEK: Tuesday, a Fed rate decision + August housing starts & building permits. Thursday, the latest initial claims numbers + August existing home sales & the Conference Board’s leading indicators index. Friday, August new home sales & durable goods orders.

This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.

1 – marketwatch.com/story/us-aug-cpi-up-03-core-rate-unchanged-2010-09-17 [9/17/10]

2 – marketwatch.com/story/wholesale-prices-climb-04-in-august-2010-09-16-847400 [9/16/10]

3 – marketwatch.com/story/us-sept-consumer-sentiment-falls-to-666-2010-09-17-1015520 [9/17/10]

4 – washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/09/16/AR2010091600568.html [9/16/10]

5 – seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/nationworld/2012920552_smallbiz171.html [9/16/10]

6 – marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-climb-to-new-heights-2010-09-17 [9/17/10]

7 – cnbc.com/id/39236921 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=9%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=9%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=9%2F17%2F09&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=9%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=9%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=9%2F16%2F05&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=9%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=9%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=9%2F18%2F00&x=0&y=0 [9/17/10]

9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [9/17/10]

9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [9/17/10]

10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]