Weekly Economic Update 8/14/13

 

WEEKLY QUOTE “When the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail.”       – Abraham Maslow           WEEKLY TIP If much of your net worth is tied to the value of your home and you are seeing home equity as a tool to help fund your retirement, recognize that the ups and downs of your local real estate market may alter that possibility.        WEEKLY RIDDLE A cat falls into a hole 14.5 feet deep. The cat can jump 3 feet high, but she slides back 1 foot with each jump. How many jumps does it take her to get out of the hole?      Last week’s riddle: I am usually only as wide as a thumb, and I typically travel across the nation for less than a dollar, all while lying flat. What am I?     Last week’s answer: A postage stamp.	August 12, 2013      IMPRESSIVE SERVICE SECTOR GROWTH Last month saw solid expansion in U.S. service industries, according to the July non-manufacturing PMI from the Institute for Supply Management. ISM’s latest service sector PMI came in at 56.0 compared with 52.2 in June. July’s new orders index rose 6.9% to 57.7, and July’s business activity index climbed 8.7% to 60.4.1 OBAMA: FANNIE MAE & FREDDIE MAC SHOULD GO Last week in Phoenix, the President said that “private capital should take a bigger role in the mortgage markets” and advocated the passage of bipartisan legislation circulating in the Senate that would “end Fannie and Freddie as we know them” and create a Federal Mortgage Insurance Corporation to regulate the home financing system. Even though winding down Fannie and Freddie has widespread support, mortgage interest rates would likely rise without their credit guarantees.2,3 HOW DOES EARNINGS SEASON LOOK SO FAR? The short answer: it looks better than many analysts had expected. Just after Friday’s close, Bloomberg reported that 447 firms in the S&P 500 had reported quarterly results; 72% of them had beaten the profit projections of analysts and 56% had exceeded sales forecasts.4   OIL & GOLD FINISH THE WEEK WITH A FLOURISH NYMEX crude settled up at $106.03 per barrel Friday after rising 2.54% in a trading day. On the COMEX, gold ended the week at $1,314.60 an ounce, up $3.90 Friday.5   STOCKS BEAT A RETREAT The big three all traded lower last week. The Dow went -1.49% to settle at 15,425.51 Friday, the NASDAQ went -0.80% to end the week at 3,660.11, and the S&P 500 went -1.07% to wrap up the week at 1,691.42.6 THIS WEEK: Monday brings earnings from Sysco. July retail sales numbers from the Census Bureau, a report on June business inventories and earnings from Flower Foods and Cree arrive Tuesday. Wednesday, the July Producer Price Index appears, plus earnings from Cisco, NetApp, Deere, Macy’s and NetEase. July’s Consumer Price Index comes out Thursday, along with the August NAHB Housing Market Index, numbers on July industrial output, and quarterly results from Nordstrom, Applied Materials, Kohl’s and Wal-Mart. Friday, the initial August consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan appears, along with numbers on July housing starts and building permits. % CHG YTD 1YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +17.71 +17.17 +6.29 +6.78 NASDAQ +21.22 +21.25 +10.32 +12.26 S&P 500 +18.60 +20.57 +6.10 +7.30 REAL YIELD 8/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS 0.33% -0.58% 1.72% 2.27%   Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov – 8/9/136,7,8,9 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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Citations. 1 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [8/5/13] 2 – nytimes.com/2013/08/07/us/politics/obama-fannie-mae-freddie-mac.html [8/7/13] 3 – csmonitor.com/Business/new-economy/2013/0808/If-Obama-eliminates-Fannie-Mae-Freddie-Mac-will-mortgage-rates-go-up [8/8/13] 4 – bloomberg.com/news/2013-08-09/u-s-stock-index-futures-decline-monster-beverage-drops.html [8/9/13] 5 – reuters.com/finance/commodities [8/9/13] 6 – tinyurl.com/luqsm63 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F9%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F9%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F9%2F12&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F8%2F08&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=8%2F8%2F03&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=8%2F8%2F03&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=8%2F8%2F03&x=0&y=0 [8/9/13] 8 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [8/9/13] 9 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [8/9/13]

 

 

Weekly Economic Update March 12, 2012

WEEKLY QUOTE   “Science is the great antidote to the poison of enthusiasm and superstition.” – Adam Smith     WEEKLY TIP   Financial strategies sometimes need to be revised due to career, family or lifestyle changes. So review your saving and investing approach annually. Few people do; more people should.     WEEKLY RIDDLE   What word doesn’t belong in this group: blast, paper, castle, coin, box, storm.     Last week’s riddle: Two fathers and two sons shopped for computers at their local big box retailer. Each bought a PC, yet they bought only three PCs total. How could this be?     Last week’s answer: The shoppers were a man, his son and his grandson.	March 12, 2012   227,000 NEW JOBS, BUT JOBLESS RATE STILL AT 8.3% While unemployment levels remained unchanged in February, Labor Department data showed that nonfarm payrolls expanded by more than 200,000 positions for the third straight month. The private sector added 233,000 jobs in February, so it was basically responsible for the impressive net job gain. The underemployment rate (representing the jobless plus those settling for less than a 40-hour workweek) was 14.9% in February, a 1.8% drop from a year before. With such consistent job growth, the Federal Reserve faces less pressure to roll out another monetary stimulus.1 SERVICE SECTOR GROWS IN February The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector PMI climbed to 57.3 for February, seeing a half-percent gain. A 3.1% jump in business activity/production and a 1.8% rise in new orders were nice highlights.2   OIL, GOLD END WEEK WITH MODERATE GAINS From Wednesday to Friday, gold futures rose $39.50 and oil futures $2.70. For the week, gains were actually modest: oil advanced but $0.70 on the NYMEX to $107.40 a barrel, while gold racked up a $2.10 gain to end Friday’s COMEX session at $1,710.90 per ounce. The price of unleaded gas was $3.76 a gallon nationally on Friday per AAA’s survey.1,3   LITTLE VOLATILITY AFTER GREEK BOND SWAP On Wall Street, March 5-9 mirrored the week before: the Dow pulled back (-0.43% to 12,922.02) and the NASDAQ (+0.41% to 2,988.34) and S&P 500 (+0.09% to 1,370.87) advanced. The market was still wary of the debt deal out of the EU – last week, 86% of investors holding Greek bonds agreed to swap securities issued by the Greek government for replacement ones worth less, and collective action clauses will force about 10% more of these bondholders to do so. While this seemingly opens the door for a new €130 billion EU/IMF rescue package for Greece, it could be the last bailout Greece receives.1,4   THIS WEEK: In addition to what goes on in Europe, we have a lot of stateside data. Monday, Urban Outfitters and Burger King issue Q4 results. On Tuesday, a Fed policy meeting concludes and February retail sales figures arrive. Wednesday, Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaks in Nashville and Guess and Youku (China’s equivalent of YouTube) provide Q4 earnings. Besides new initial claims figures, Thursday offers February’s PPI and earnings from Ross Stores and Dole. Friday, February’s CPI arrives plus the initial March consumer sentiment survey from the University of Michigan; the iPad 3 also hits the shelves.   % CHANGE Y-T-D 1-YR CHG 5-YR AVG 10-YR AVG DJIA +5.77 +5.80 +1.05 +2.22 NASDAQ +14.71 +8.60 +5.03 +5.49 S&P 500 +9.01 +3.86 -0.46 +1.77 REAL YIELD 3/9 RATE 1 YR AGO 5 YRS AGO 10 YRS AGO 10 YR TIPS -0.24% 0.98% 2.25% 3.48%   Sources: money.msn.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 3/9/121,5,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
Please feel free to forward this article to family, friends or colleagues. If you would like us to add them to our distribution list, please reply with their address. We will contact them first and request their permission to add them to our list.
This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. Marketing Library.Net Inc. is not affiliated with any broker or brokerage firm that may be providing this information to you. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.   Citations. 1 – money.msn.com/market-news/post.aspx?post=e280f203-b968-4fde-b06c-075eaf9a5756 [3/9/12] 2 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [3/5/12] 3 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2012/03/09/data-points-energy-metals-552/ [3/9/12] 4 – http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/MfgROB.cfm [3/1/12] 5 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=common-financial-mistakes-and-how-to-avoid-them&category=29 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F9%2F11&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F9%2F07&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=3%2F8%2F02&x=0&y=0 [3/9/12] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [3/9/12] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [3/9/12] 8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2002/ofm10902.pdf [1/9/02]

Reasons For Optimism

Stocks are fizzling … but things could change this summer.

When was the last time the Dow took a six-week tumble? On June 10, the Dow dipped below 12,000 and posted its sixth straight weekly decline. You have to go back to October 2002 to find a Dow losing streak that long. If you’re hearing bearish groans in the distance, you’re not alone: the bears are making their voices heard as the Dow is down almost 7% from where it was at the end of April.¹

June certainly has been tough on Wall Street, with the bulk of economic indicators flashing a slowdown. However, there is reason to think the third and fourth quarters of 2011 may be better for stocks – in fact, that’s what many analysts believe.

Q2 earnings projections are quite good. Investment research firm FactSet finds that despite the losing streak, aggregate Q2 S&P 500 earnings estimates are basically unchanged from late May. The collective forecast projects a 14.6% growth in earnings for the quarter and a 10.4% jump in revenues. (That double-digit revenue growth would be the best since Q1 2010.) As earnings are truly the mother’s milk of stocks, the market could heat up this summer if these collective predictions come true.²

Stocks are still cheap. On June 3, the S&P 500’s P/E ratio was 16.4 compared to 18.3 a year earlier. Most stocks look like a fair value right now.³

The economy is still growing. The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book and the twin PMI indices from the Institute for Supply Management both signal this. In fact, the ISM service sector index showed the growth of that sector accelerating in May.⁴

Homebuying could be poised to pick up. Sustained high unemployment isn’t going away this year, but some silver linings are emerging that bode well for the housing market. Moody’s Analytics says that the ratio of home prices to income is now 20.9% below the average ratio from 1985-2010. Mortgage interest rates are at levels unseen since the early 1960s. There are also indications that prices may be approaching a bottom in metro areas not rampant with short sales and foreclosures. Real estate analytics company CoreLogic found that home prices were down 7.5% year-over-year in April, but only down 0.5% when distressed sales were factored out.⁵

Hang in there. The bull market is maturing; QE2 is ending. We haven’t yet seen a correction, just a pullback. Mays and Junes have brought more than a few of those.

 

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This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.

1 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/10/were-going-streaking/ [6/10/11]

2 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/06/10/q2-earnings-and-revenue-estimates-remain-upbeat/ [6/10/11]

3 – smartmoney.com/invest/stocks/why-the-market-worrywarts-are-wrong-1307117379674/ [6/3/11]

4 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/3/11]

5 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304563104576361522020024248.html [6/4/11]

6 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=money-and-happiness&category=29 [6/12/11]

Weekly Economic Update, May 9, 2011

HIRING IMPROVES IN APRIL
The Labor Department’s latest jobs report contained some good news: the private sector added 268,000 new jobs last month, and overall non-farm payrolls increased by 244,000 in April. The private sector hasn’t seen this much month-over-month job creation since February 2006, and the net gain of 244,000 jobs was the best since June 2010. The unemployment rate went up to 9.0% in April, but Wall Street rallied Friday after the report was released.¹

PMI IndEX STRONG; SERVICE SECTOR INDEX SLIPS
Last week, the Institute for Supply Management released its April reports on the manufacturing and service sectors. While the manufacturing index came in at 60.4 – down slightly from March’s 61.2 – anything above 60 indicates a booming sector. The non-manufacturing index dropped to 52.8 from March’s 57.3 reading. Anything above 50 means growth, but the index hasn’t been this low in eight months.²

GOLD, SILVER & OIL PULL BACK
Are commodities overbought? That anxiety weighed on the futures markets last week, and it was amplified by a strengthening dollar. Silver took the biggest hit, retreating 27.4% across five days to $35.28 an ounce at the Friday COMEX close. Gold lost 4.2% to end the week at $1,491.20 per ounce; copper sank 4.9% for the week, leaving it 14% under its February 14 record close on Friday. Oil slid 14.7% last week, all the way down to $97.18 per barrel at the Friday close; crude had its poorest week since mid-December of 2008.^3,4

A VOLATILE WEEK SEES STOCKS RETREAT
Stocks rollercoastered a bit last week as closely watched indicators alternately came in positive and negative. By Friday’s close, the scorecard for May 3-6 looked like this: DJIA, -1.34% to 12,638.74; S&P 500, -1.72% to 1,340.20; NASDAQ, -1.60% to 2,827.56. (The “flash crash” occurred on May 6, 2010 – that’s why the 1-YR CHG column below shows such radical improvement this week.)⁵

THIS WEEK: No major economic releases are scheduled for Monday. On Tuesday, we have a report on March wholesale inventories and 1Q earnings from Disney. On Wednesday, three Federal Reserve Bank presidents speak and 1Q earnings from Toyota, Symantec and Cisco arrive. Thursday, the April PPI is released and the newest reports on initial jobless claims arrive; we get the Census Bureau’s report on April retail sales along with 1Q earnings from three titans of the mall – Nordstrom, Macy’s and Kohl’s. Friday, we get April’s CPI and the University of Michigan’s initial consumer sentiment survey for May.

Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 5/6/11^5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

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This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx^®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.

Citations.
1 – cnbc.com/id/42928731/ [5/6/11]
2 – zacks.com/stock/news/52612/ISM+Service+Index+Disappoints [5/4/11]
3 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/06/silver-finishes-its-brutal-week-with-a-whimper/ [5/6/11]
4 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/05/06/data-points-energy-metals-489/ [5/6/11]
5 – cnbc.com/id/42935357 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=10&y=18 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F6%2F10&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F5%2F06&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=5%2F7%2F01&x=0&y=0 [5/6/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [5/6/11]
7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [5/6/11]
8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm11001.pdf [1/10/01]
9 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [5/8/11]

Weekly Economic Update, November 8, 2010

FIRST NET JOB GAIN SINCE MAY
Economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires thought non-farm payrolls would increase by about 60,000 for October. In a pleasant surprise, the economy added 151,000 jobs instead. While the jobless rate remained at 9.6% for October, Labor Department data showed the economy adding jobs for the first time in five months – a development implying moderate growth instead of a “double dip” recession.¹

TWO MORE SIGNALS OF EXPANSION
The Institute for Supply Management released its October assessments of the manufacturing and service sectors last week, and both ISM indices showed improvement. The manufacturing index climbed to 56.9 from 54.4 and the service sector index improved to 54.3 from September’s 53.2 reading.²

CONSUMERS SPEND A BIT MORE
September’s personal spending gain wasn’t that impressive – just 0.2%. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.4% increase in for the month. The Commerce Department data also showed a 0.1% decrease in personal income, the first such reduction since July 2009.³

PENDING HOME SALES SUDDENLY SLIP
They fell by 1.8% in September, according to the National Association of Realtors. They haven’t declined in three months. September 2010 pending sales were 24.9% underneath year-ago levels.⁴

STOCKS HIT 2010 HIGHS
The Dow, S&P 500 and NASDAQ quickly reached YTD peaks after the Federal Reserve announced its plans to buy $600 billion worth of Treasuries over the next eight months. Here is how the big three performed last week: Dow, +2.93% to 11,444.08; S&P 500, +3.60% to 1,225.85; NASDAQ, +2.85% to 2,578.98. Some key commodities took off as well – oil prices gained $5.42 on the week, gold gained $40.20 across five days to close at $1,397.30 on the COMEX Friday, and copper advanced 5.68% for the week.^5,6,7

COMING NEXT WEEK: The schedule of economic releases is very light. Tuesday, we have data on September wholesale inventories. Wednesday, we have initial jobless claims for 11/6 and continuing claims as of 10/30. Friday, we get the initial October survey of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan.

% CHANGE	Y-T-D	1-YR CHG	5-YR AVG	10-YR AVG
DJIA	+9.74	+14.37	+1.73	+0.43
NASDAQ	+13.65	+22.50	+3.78	-2.45
S&P 500	+9.93	+14.93	+0.09	-1.44
REAL YIELD	11/5 RATE	1 YR AGO	5 YRS AGO	10 YRS AGO
10 YR TIPS	0.48%	1.41%	2.06%	4.03%

Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 11/5/10^6,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.

 

 

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This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

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Citations.

1 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704353504575596060581399440.html [11/5/10]

2 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [11/3/10]

3 – blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/11/01/markets-open-higher-despite-spending-woes [11/1/10]

4 – dailyfinance.com/story/real-estate/september-pending-home-sales-drop-uneven-economic-recovery/19704428/ [11/5/10]

5 – csmonitor.com/Business/2010/1103/Federal-Reserve-to-buy-600-billion-in-bonds-as-hedge-against-deflation [11/3/10]

6 – cnbc.com/id/40032470  [11/5/10]

7 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/11/05/data-points-energy-metals-396/ [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F5%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F5%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F5%2F09&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F4%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F4%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F4%2F05&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=11%2F6%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=11%2F6%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=11%2F6%2F00&x=0&y=0 [11/5/10]

9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [11/5/10]

9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [11/5/10]

10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]