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WEEKLY QUOTE “Jealousy is the tribute mediocrity pays to genius.” – Fulton J. Sheen
WEEKLY TIP Many small business owners don’t have succession plans. If you haven’t created one, now is as good a time as any to start; this will not only enable continuity, but also address possible gift, income and estate tax issues.
WEEKLY RIDDLE I am in the center of gravity, and part of every victory. I am clearly seen in the midst of a river. I could name three who are in love with me and have three associates in vice. What am I?
Last week’s riddle:
Last week’s answer: 80 minutes is the same as an hour and 20 minutes.
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ANNUALIZED INFLATION HITS 3.9% So noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics last week. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% during the month of September, with core CPI rising 0.1%, the smallest such increase in six months. (Annualized core consumer inflation was at 2.0%.) The Producer Price Index climbed 0.8% for September after a flat August.1
HOMEBUYING TAPERS OFF IN SEPTEMBER HOUSING STARTS UP 15% Here’s a good sign for residential real estate: a sign of demand. Most of the 15.0% monthly increase in September came from apartment construction; the Commerce Department reported a 53% monthly jump in that category. Single-family construction improved by 1.7%. Overall, there were 658,000 housing starts last month, the best number in any month since April 2010.3 DOW EXTENDS WINNING STREAK Wall Street rallied Friday on the eve of the crucial summit meeting to address the Eurozone debt crisis, helped by news that a new aid package for Greece had been approved by EU finance ministers. The DJIA gained ground for the fourth week in a row; the S&P 500 also advanced. The weekly numbers: S&P 500, +1.12% to 1,238.25; DJIA, +1.41% to 11,808.79; NASDAQ, -1.14% to 2,637.46.4,5 THIS WEEK: Earnings season is in full swing. Monday, earnings reports from Netflix, Amgen, Caterpillar and Texas Instruments hit the Street. On Tuesday, BP, Deutsche Bank, Amazon.com, Broadcom, DuPont, UBS and 3M issue 3Q results … and the August Case/Shiller Home Price Index comes out along with the Conference Board’s October gauge of consumer confidence. On Wednesday, quarterly results arrive from Boeing, VISA, GlaxoSmithKline,Sprint, ConocoPhillips and Ford and we have data on September new home sales and durable goods orders. Thursday brings the initial estimate of 3Q GDP and the data on September pending home sales, plus earnings from ExxonMobil, Occidental Petroleum, Baidu, P&G, Aetna, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Time Warner Cable, Hershey and Motorola Solutions. Friday, earnings from Merck and Chevron come out along with the report on September consumer spending and October’s final University of Michigan consume r sentiment index.
Sources: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov, treasurydirect.gov – 10/21/114,5,6,7,8 Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses,and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
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| This material was prepared by MarketingLibrary.Net Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.
Citations. 1 – nytimes.com/2011/10/20/business/economy/us-consumer-inflation-subdued-housing-starts-up.html [10/19/11] 2 – ajc.com/business/sales-of-previously-occupied-1206303.html [10/20/11] 3 – thestreet.com/story/11283665/1/raise-the-roof-housing-starts-up-15-in-september.html [10/20/11] 4 – montoyaregistry.com/Financial-Market.aspx?financial-market=an-introduction-to-the-stock-market&category=29 [10/21/11] 5 – cnbc.com/id/44988273 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F21%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F21F2%2F10&x=10&y=18 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F21%2F10&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F20%2F06&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=10%2F22%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=10%2F22%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=10%2F22%2F01&x=0&y=0 [10/21/11] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [10/21/11] 7 – treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [10/21/11] 8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2001/ofm71101.pdf [7/11/01] |
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Weekly Economic Update, October 4, 2010
October 4, 2010 — Phillip StatlerCONSUMER SPENDING UP 0.4%
August personal spending beat the 0.3% gain forecast by economists polled by Bloomberg News. Personal income was up 0.5% for August, the biggest monthly gain of 2010. The “core” PCE price index (minus food and energy prices) rose just 0.1% in August, a signal of tame inflation. The personal savings rate ticked up to 5.8% from 5.7%. 1,2
MIXED RESULTS FROM CONSUMER POLLS
Early last week, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index slumped to 48.2 for September, more than five points below forecasts. Yet a fresh Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey surprised analysts Friday – that barometer came in at 68.2, above the consensus of 67.0 forecast by Bloomberg and improved from the previous 66.6 reading.3,4
ISM: MANUFACTURING GROWS MODESTLY
The Institute for Supply Management released its September manufacturing index on Friday. The September reading – 54.4 – indicated further growth, but also the slowest pace of expansion in 10 months.1
SURPRISE INCREASE IN CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
Analysts surveyed by Reuters felt we would see a 0.4% drop in this indicator for August. Instead, construction spending rose by 0.4% in that month (a month in which housing starts also surged). The downside: investment in private sector projects hit its lowest level since January 1998.5
FRIDAY GAINS WRAP UP A DOWN WEEK
The DJIA’s four-week winning streak ended Friday, even as the index gained 41.63 on the first day of October. For the week, the DJIA went -0.28% to 10,829.68, the S&P 500 went -0.44% to 1,146.24 and the NASDAQ went -0.21% to 2,370.75. The final September numbers were pretty spectacular: DJIA, +7.72%; S&P 500, +8.76%; NASDAQ, +12.04%. Statistically, September 2010 was the best September for the Dow and S&P in 71 years. All ten industry groups in the S&P 500 advanced last month.6,7
COMING NEXT WEEK: On Monday, we get news on August pending home sales & factory orders. Tuesday, ISM releases its September service sector index. Thursday, we have the latest initial claims numbers & August consumer credit. On Friday, we will get the September unemployment rate from the Labor Department; August wholesale inventories data will also be released.
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | +3.85 | +13.89 | +0.49 | +0.12 |
| NASDAQ | +4.48 | +15.23 | +2.04 | -3.36 |
| S&P 500 | +2.79 | +11.30 | -1.34 | -2.02 |
| REAL YIELD | 10/1 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 0.75% | 1.50% | 1.78% | 4.03% |
Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 10/1/106,8,9,10
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – businessweek.com/news/2010-10-01/u-s-stocks-rise-as-consumer-spending-confidence-boost-outlook.html [10/1/10]
2 – marketwatch.com/story/aug-personal-income-up-05-spending-up-02-2010-10-01 [10/1/10]
3 – news.blogs.cnn.com/2010/09/28/consumer-confidence-drops-but-stocks-rise/ [9/28/10]
4 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-10-01/u-s-consumer-confidence-declines-less-than-forecast-michigan-index-shows.html [10/1/10]
5 – foxbusiness.com/markets/2010/10/01/construction-spending-rises-unexpectedly-august/ [10/1/10]
6 – cnbc.com/id/39463494 [10/1/10]
7 – cnbc.com/id/39444625/ [9/30/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F1%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F1%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F1%2F09&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=9%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=9%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=9%2F30%2F05&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=10%2F2%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=10%2F2%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
8 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=10%2F2%2F00&x=0&y=0 [10/1/10]
9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [10/1/10]
9 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [10/1/10]
10 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update, August 23, 2010
August 23, 2010 — Phillip StatlerA JUMP IN HOUSING STARTS
In a relatively light week of economic data, one of the notable items was a 1.7% rise in new home construction in July. Economists had expected only a 0.2% increase in that category. However, the Commerce Department said most of the gain came in multi-family housing. In contrast, single-family housing starts were down 4.2% for the month, with building permits down 3.1%.1
GM WILL GO PUBLIC
General Motors has announced it will reenter the stock market. Last Wednesday, it filed an IPO registration with the Securities and Exchange Commission. One of the largest IPOs in history may come as soon as October, including common and preferred shares. This signals the end of “Government Motors”: the Treasury Department will now have the opportunity to reduce its 61% stake in the company. GM earned $1.3 billion in 2Q 2010 – its second straight quarter in the black. 2,3
LEADING INDICATORS TURN POSITIVE AGAIN
After a 0.3% slip in June and a 0.5% drop in May, the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index eked out a 0.1% increase for July. The LEI has been more or less flat since March, yet components within the index have signified a mild economic expansion across that time.4
PPI RISES FOR FIRST TIME SINCE MARCH
July’s 0.2% increase in the Producer Price Index was in line with analysts’ forecasts. Core PPI (wholesale inflation minus food and energy prices) rose 0.3% in July, more than the 0.1% advance expected.1
OIL FUTURES SINK; GOLD FUTURES RISE
In fact, gold prices rose $12.30 last week. That 1.01% weekly advance led to gold settling at $1,227.20 per ounce Friday on the COMEX. Over the last three weeks, gold prices have climbed 3.85%. Oil prices slipped $1.93 last week. At Friday’s close on the NYMEX, crude for September delivery was at $73.46 a barrel.5
LIGHT VOLUME, LOW ENTHUSIASM
August options were expiring last week, and initial jobless claims weren’t shrinking. Combine that with some bearish sentiment and you had a week of light trading marked by significant selloffs. The NASDAQ advanced 0.04% last week to close Friday at 2,179.76. The DJIA lost a bit of ground to settle at 10,213.62 Friday, while the S&P 500 ended the week at 1,071.69.6
| % CHANGE | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -2.06 | +9.24 | -0.65 | -0.78 |
| NASDAQ | -3.94 | +9.58 | +0.41 | -4.49 |
| S&P 500 | -3.89 | +6.38 | -2.43 | -2.85 |
| REAL YIELD | 8/20 RATE | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10 YR TIPS | 1.05% | 1.60% | 1.85% | 4.03% |
Source: cnbc.com, bigcharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov – 8/20/106,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly.
These returns do not include dividends.
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100817-705894.html [8/17/10]
2 – boston.com/business/markets/articles/2010/08/20/gms_ipo_may_favor_brave_despite_recent_rocky_history/ [8/20/10]
3 – freep.com/article/20100818/BUSINESS0101/100818044/GM-files-to-launch-its-public-stock-offer [8/18/10]
4 – conference-board.org/press/pressdetail.cfm?pressid=3988 [8/19/10]
5 – blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/08/20/data-points-energy-metals-344/ [8/20/10]
6 – cnbc.com/id/38789911 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F20%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F20%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F20%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F19%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F21%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F21%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F21%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/20/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [8/20/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [8/20/10]
9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update, August 9, 2010
August 9, 2010 — Phillip StatlerUNEMPLOYMENT REMAINS AT 9.5%
The American economy added 71,000 jobs in July but lost 202,000 others (143,000 of those positions were short-term Census Bureau hires). The private sector added 630,000 jobs during the first seven months of 2010; that 90,000 per month is far short of the 150,000 per month that would be commensurate with population growth. The bright spot: economists had presumed the jobless rate would edge up to 9.6% in July.1
ISM: MANUFACTURING & SERVICE SECTOR GROWING
The Institute for Supply Management’s service sector index rose to 54.3 for July, a nice surprise (economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast a dip to 53.0). The new orders and employment components of the service sector index both showed growth. ISM’s manufacturing index came in at 55.5 for July, beating a Briefing.com consensus forecast of 54.2. (However, the Commerce Department noted that factory orders declined by 1.2% in July following a 1.0% fall in June.)2.3,4
SAVING OUTPACES SPENDING
Personal spending and personal incomes were both flat last month according to the Commerce Department. The personal savings rate increased again to 6.4% – it has risen monthly since February, and it hasn’t been under 5.0% since October 2008. (During 2007, the personal savings rate averaged just 2.1%.) The good news is that households are accumulating cash reserves; the bad news is that the primary engine of the economy is subdued.5
FEWER HOMEBUYING CONTRACTS SIGNED IN JUNE
Pending home sales decreased by 2.6% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors; the number was 19.0% below year-ago levels. The June dip may reflect buyers rushing to sign contracts before federal incentives could expire.6
15-YEAR FRMs BELOW 4.0%; 30-YEAR FRMs BELOW 4.5%
Freddie Mac reported the average rate on a 30-year home loan at 4.49% last week; a year ago, the national average was 5.22%. Rates on 15-year FRMs were 3.95% last week, compared to 4.63% at this time in 2009.7
STOCKS GAIN FOR SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
The DJIA rose 1.79% last week, the NASDAQ advanced 1.50%, and the S&P 500 gained 1.82%. At Friday’s closing bell, the S&P 500 was at 1,121.64, the NASDAQ at 2,288.47, and the Dow at 10,653.56.8
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – money.cnn.com/2010/08/06/news/economy/jobs_july/ [8/6/10]
2 – dailyfinance.com/story/investing/services-sector-index-unexpectedly-rose-in-july/19580447/ [8/4/10]
3 – thestreet.com/story/10823959/1/ism-index-growth-slows-to-555.html [8/2/10]
4 – reuters.com/article/idUSN023868020100803 [8/4/10]
5 – suntimes.com/business/currency/2563780,CST-NWS-savings04.article [8/4/10]
6 – seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2012519621_apuspendinghomesales.html [8/3/10]
7 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703748904575411193528926092.html [8/6/10]
8 – cnbc.com/id/38596993 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F6%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F6%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F6%2F09&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F5%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F5%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F5%2F05&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=8%2F7%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=8%2F7%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
9 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=8%2F7%2F00&x=0&y=0 [8/6/10]
10 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [8/6/10]
10 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [8/6/10]
11 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [7/12/00]
The Weekly Economic Update, June 28, 2010
June 28, 2010 — Phillip StatlerHighest consumer confidence since January 2008
That is what the final University of Michigan/Reuters survey for June reveals. The index came in at 76.0, an improvement from the final 73.6 reading for May. (For the record, the survey has averaged 84.5 across the past ten years.) The poll’s index of consumer expectations (the “better or worse six months from now?” question) improved 1.0 points to 69.8.1
Home sales swoon in May
New and existing home sales plunged dramatically last month as federal homebuying credits left the picture. Economists expected new home sales numbers would dip, but the 32.7% decline announced by the Commerce Department surprised Wall Street and the real estate industry. The National Association of Realtors stated that existing home sales were down 2.2% last month.2
Durable goods orders fall, but corporate profits revised north
The Commerce Department noted an overall 1.1% decline in durable goods orders for May; minus transportation orders, there was actually a 0.9% gain in the category. It put 1Q GDP slightly lower at +2.7% in its final 1Q snapshot, but it also revised 1Q corporate profits north to +8.0%. Corporate earnings were 34.0% better than a year before – the largest year-over-year climb in 26 years, and a signal that both hiring and business investment are due to accelerate. The consensus 2Q forecast of a Wall Street Journal survey estimates second-quarter GDP will come in at +3.6%.1,3,4
BP, financial reform concerns weigh on Wall Street
The DJIA wrapped up Friday at 10,143.81, ending a rough week. The S&P 500 closed at 1,076.76 Friday, while the NASDAQ closed at 2,223.48. All three indices wound up in the red for 2010 as of Friday’s close, but the Russell 2000 remained positive (+3.15% YTD).5
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-YR CHG | 5-YR AVG | 10-YR AVG |
| DJIA | -2.73 | +19.73 | -0.30 | -0.38 |
| NASDAQ | -2.01 | +21.53 | +1.66 | -4.32 |
| S&P 500 | -3.44 | +17.01 | -1.93 | -2.60 |
| Real Yield | 6/25 | 1 YR AGO | 5 YRS AGO | 10 YRS AGO |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.21% | 1.82% | 1.65% | 4.34% |
| (Source: usatoday.com, bigcharts.com,
ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 6/25/10)5,6,7,8 |
||||
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – bloomberg.com/news/2010-06-25/consumer-confidence-in-u-s-increases-to-76-from-73-6-in-michigan-index.html [6/25/10]
2 – dailyfinance.com/story/real-estate/may-new-home-sales-plunge-32-7/19527532/ [6/23/10]
3 – online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100624-706095.html [6/24/10]
4 – online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703615104575328493487718962.html [6/25/10]
5 – cnbc.com/id/37927853 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F25%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F25%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F25%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F24%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F26%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F26%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F26%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/25/10]
7 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [6/25/10]
7 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [6/25/10]
8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of June 14, 2010
June 14, 2010 — Phillip StatlerRetail sales down 1.2% in May. What happened? Perhaps consumers took a break after spending notably in March and April. Auto sales slipped 1.7%; hardware store sales fell 9.3%, possibly influenced by the expiration of homebuyer tax credits.1
Consumer sentiment rises. Consumers may have bought less recently, but according to the University of Michigan/Reuters consumer sentiment poll, their confidence has increased. June’s preliminary reading was 75.5 – a rise from the final 73.6 May mark. The barometer of current economic conditions reached 82.9; it hasn’t been this high since March 2008.2
Wholesale, business inventories increase. The Commerce Department reported 0.4% gains in both categories for April. Business inventories hit their highest level since last June; wholesale inventories were up for a fourth consecutive month.2,3
Gold touches $1,250 level. The precious metal hit a new intraday peak last week ($1,254.50) and settled at $1,230.20 per ounce Friday. Gold gained 1.03% last week, and other metals did better: silver futures rose 5.39% and palladium futures were up 4.07%. Copper also advanced 3.00% for the week.4
S&P 500 gains 2.51%. Welcome news: from Monday to Friday, the index had its best week since early March. The NASDAQ gained 1.10% and the DJIA gained 2.81% last week, with the Dow settling at 10,211.07.5
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Chg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | -2.08 | +16.42 | -0.57 | -0.33 |
| NASDAQ | -1.13 | +20.47 | +1.75 | -4.05 |
| S&P 500 | -2.11 | +15.53 | -1.78 | -2.45 |
| Real Yield | 6/11 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.29% | 1.89% | 1.74% | 4.34% |
(Source: CNBC.com, BigCharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 6/11/10)5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
___________________________________________________________________
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc.. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – cbsnews.com/stories/2010/06/11/business/main6571608.shtml [6/11/10]
2 – cnbc.com/id/37636961/ [6/1/10]
3 – businessweek.com/news/2010-06-09/wholesale-inventories-in-u-s-rose-0-4-in-april-update1-.html [6/9/10]
4 – cnbc.com/id/37648767/page/2/ [6/11/10]
5 – cnbc.com/id/37648767 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F11%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F10%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F12%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F12%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
6 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F12%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/11/10]
7 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [6/11/10]
7 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [6/11/10]
8 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of June 7, 2010
June 7, 2010 — Phillip StatlerJobless rate ticks down 0.2%. The news didn’t impress Wall Street: while May’s unemployment rate fell to 9.7% and the economy added 431,000 jobs, 390,000 of them represented temporary U.S. Census Bureau hires. Still, the number was better than the 9.8% reading economists expected.1
ISM: continuing expansion in key sectors. For the tenth straight month, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index showed growth, though May’s 59.7 reading came under April’s 60.4 mark. The Institute’s non-manufacturing index read 55.4 again for May; it has shown the service sector expanding for the last five months.2,3
April sees rise in pending home sales. Spurred by the federal tax credit deadline, more buyers rushed to sign contracts. The National Association of Realtors reported its pending home sales index at 110.9 for April, a 6.0% gain from March and the highest reading since October.4
Factory orders up 1.2%. The April increase reported by the Commerce Department was actually below the 1.8% gain forecast in a Reuters poll of economists; March’s gain was revised up to 1.7%.5
Stocks fight for stability. The Dow closed below 10,000 Friday as Wall Street dissected the May jobless report and glimpsed new headlines about Hungary facing a potential debt crisis. It was a volatile week and ultimately a losing week, with the Dow ending at 9,931.22, the NASDAQ at 2,219.17 and the S&P 500 at 1,064.88.6
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Chg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | -4.76 | +13.50 | -1.01 | -0.82 |
| NASDAQ | -2.20 | +19.95 | +1.43 | -4.19 |
| S&P 500 | -4.50 | +12.99 | -2.19 | -2.74 |
| Real Yield | 6/4 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.26% | 1.83% | 1.61% | 4.34% |
(Source: CNBC.com, BigCharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 6/4/10)6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
___________________________________________________________________
This material was prepared by Peter Montoya Inc, and does not necessarily represent the views of Statler Financial Services, Inc. This information should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 – blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2010/06/04/dow-sp-futures-sink-on-disappointing-jobs-number/ [6/4/10]
2 – ism.ws/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm [6/1/10]
3 – ism.ws/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/3/10]
4 – abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10805353 [6/2/10]
5 – reuters.com/article/idUSN0219014320100603?type=marketsNews [6/3/10]
6 – cnbc.com/id/37508601 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F4%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F4%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F4%2F09&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F3%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F3%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F3%2F05&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=6%2F5%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=6%2F5%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
7 – bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=6%2F5%2F00&x=0&y=0 [6/4/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [6/4/10]
8 – ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [6/4/10]
9 – treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of April 12, 2010
April 12, 2010 — Phillip StatlerDid banks downplay risk levels? So contends a Wall Street Journal story, citing data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It says that during the last five quarters, a total of 18 big banks reduced borrowing just before reporting debt levels to the public, then increased debt levels as the quarter progressed. The practice, while certainly legal, has prompted an SEC inquiry.1
Inventories beat expectations. Wholesale inventories, that is. The Commerce Department said they increased by 0.6% for February, a hint that first quarter GDP might prove stronger than presumed. Economists had predicted a 0.4 gain.2
Superb week for metals. As the EU moved to aid Greece, metals responded to the news with gains. Across last week, gold prices rose 3.18% to $1,161.90 an ounce. Silver gained 2.58%, copper 0.17%, platinum 3.19% and palladium 4.53% during those five trading days. Earlier in the week, concerns about a Greece default sent the 10-year note yield above 4% for the first time in ten months on April 5; yields were 3.88% on Friday afternoon.3,4
Dow flirts with 11,000. The index actually climbed over that benchmark Friday, but settled at 10,997.35 as the trading week wrapped up. It gained 0.64% last week, while the S&P 500 advanced 1.38% and the NASDAQ 2.14%. The stock market has now climbed for six weeks in a row, the longest win streak on the Street since last April. Something else to note: the CBOE VIX, the “fear index”, finished the week at its lowest level since October 2007.5
(Source: CNBC.com, BigCharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 4/9/10)5,6,7,8
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
___________________________________________________________________
These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not Statler Financial Services, Inc., and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304830104575172280848939898.html [4/9/10]
2 abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10330148 [4/9/10]
3 cnbc.com/id/36333048/page/2/ [4/9/10]
4 businessweek.com/news/2010-04-09/treasuries-set-for-weekly-gain-on-concern-greece-will-default.html [4/9/10]
5 cnbc.com/id/36328433 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F9%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F9%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F9%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F8%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F10%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F10%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
6 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F10%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/9/10]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [4/9/10]
7 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [4/9/10]
8 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of March 15, 2010
March 15, 2010 — Phillip StatlerGood news at the cash register. Commerce Department data showed retail purchases up by 0.3% in February despite all the snow, sleet and rain, and 3.9% above where they were a year earlier. Most retail sales sectors had month-over-month increases.1
Signs of rising demand. Business sales increased by 0.6% in January (business inventories were flat). January 2010 business sales were 6.8% better than a year before. Other Commerce Department data shows wholesale sales jumping by 1.3% in January and wholesale stockpiles decreasing by 0.2%.2,3
Consumer confidence wavers. The preliminary Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is in for March. The index reads 72.5, down from a final 73.6 in February. However, things have improved notably from March 2009 when the gauge stood at 57.3.4
Gold & oil retreat. Gold had its poorest week since mid-January as prices dipped 2.93% last week to settle at $1,101.50 Friday on the COMEX. Oil fared better, losing just 0.32% across five days. Oil futures were $81.24 a barrel at Friday’s NYMEX close.5
Nice gains on Wall Street. Stocks pulled off weekly gains during a stretch of five trading days with only mild volatility. The DJIA advanced 0.55% last week, while the S&P 500 rose 0.99% and the NASDAQ gained 1.78%. The S&P 500 closed Friday at a 17-month high: 1,149.98.6
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Chg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | +1.89 | +48.18 | -0.28 | +0.68 |
| NASDAQ | +4.34 | +66.02 | +3.19 | -5.18 |
| S&P 500 | +3.13 | +53.18 | -0.83 | -1.69 |
| Real Yield | 3/12 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.45% | 1.88% | 1.82% | 4.34% |
(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 3/12/10)6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
___________________________________________________________________
These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not Statler Financial Services, Inc. and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations.
1 marketwatch.com/story/retail-sales-shake-off-the-snows-of-feb-2010-03-12 [3/12/10]
2 dailyfinance.com/story/business-inventories-flat-in-january/19396378/ [3/12/10]
3 businessweek.com/news/2010-03-10/wholesale-inventories-in-u-s-fell-0-2-in-january-update1-.html [3/10/10]
4 abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory?id=10083589 [3/12/10]
5 blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2010/03/12/data-points-energy-metals-239/ [3/12/10]
6 cnbc.com/id/35840993 [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F13%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F13%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F12%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F11%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [3/12/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=3%2F13%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [3/12/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [3/12/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [3/12/10]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
Weekly Economic Update for the Week of March 1, 2010
March 1, 2010 — Phillip Statler
Stocks log best month since November. The S&P 500 rose 2.85% last month even with worries over Greece, China and the U.S. housing and job markets. The S&P had its best February in 12 years.1,2
4Q GDP revised to 5.9%. That tops the initial 5.7% estimate from the Commerce Department. It means 4Q 2009 was the strongest quarter since 3Q 2003.3
Home sales in deep freeze. The January numbers were very poor: -7.2% for residential resales, -11.2% for new homes. However, existing home sales were 11.5% above where they had been a year before.4
Case-Shiller index: home prices rising. The widely watched 20-city home price index posted its seventh straight monthly gain in December. Prices increased in 15 of the index’s 20 metro areas.5
Durable goods orders up 3.0%. The January figure from the Commerce Department was hugely positive. Yet with transportation orders factored out, durable goods orders were down 0.6%.5
Less confidence last month? The February Conference Board index of consumer confidence fell to 46.0 from 55.9 in January. The index’s assessment of current conditions was the lowest since 1983.6
Soft week but strong month. The major U.S. indexes lost from 0.25% (NASDAQ) to 0.74% (Dow) last week. Monthly gains were quite strong: DJIA, +2.56%; NASDAQ, +4.23%; S&P 500, +2.85%.1
| % Change | Y-T-D | 1-Yr Chg | 5-Yr Avg | 10-Yr Avg |
| DJIA | -0.99 | +43.76 | -0.95 | +0.47 |
| NASDAQ | -1.36 | +60.86 | +1.67 | -5.12 |
| S&P 500 | -0.95 | +46.71 | -1.76 | -1.72 |
| Real Yield | 2/26 | 1 Yr Ago | 5 Yrs Ago | 10 Yrs Ago |
| 10YrTIPS | 1.48% | 2.02% | 1.64% | 4.34% |
(Source: CNBC.com, CNNMoney.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 2/26/10)1,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.
___________________________________________________________________
These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not Statler Financial Services, Inc., and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards.
Statler Financial Services, Inc. is registered as an investment adviser with the state of Florida. The presence of this Web site on the Internet shall in no direct or indirect way to be construed or interpreted to suggest Statler Financial Services, Inc. is soliciting to sell advisory services or offering to sell advisory services to residents of any other state other than the state of Florida.
Citations
1 cnbc.com/id/35601889 [2/26/10]
2 cnbc.com/id/35607823 [2/26/10]
3 online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704625004575089030822996718.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection [2/26/10]
4 latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2010/02/sales-of-existing-homes-fall-72-in-january.html [2/26/10]
5 sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2010/02/23/financial/f112032S90.DTL [2/23/10]
6 smartmoney.com/investing/economy/the-other-consumer-confidence-index/ [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F26%2F09&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F05&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F00&mode=add&symb=DJIA [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F26%2F09&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F05&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F00&mode=add&symb=COMP [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F26%2F09&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F05&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/26/10]
7 money.cnn.com/quote/historical/historical.html?pg=hi&close_date=2%2F25%2F00&mode=add&symb=SPX [2/26/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [2/26/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [2/26/10]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]
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