Weekly Economic Update for the Week of April 19, 2010

A little less confidence. The preliminary April Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in at 69.5, versus 73.6 at the end of March. Interestingly, the survey’s expectations index slipped to its lowest level in 13 months.¹

More minimal inflation. The Consumer Price Index advanced 0.1% in March; with food and energy prices factored out, core CPI was flat. Overall CPI increased by 2.3% during the past 12 months of data.²

Car buying drives retail sales. A 6.7% rise in the demand for autos sent retail purchases 1.6% higher for March. That even beat the 1.3% gain forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch.³

Manufacturing up 0.9% last month. So noted the Federal Reserve last week. Total industrial output rose 0.1% in March; economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires thought we would see a 0.8% gain.⁴

Housing starts up 1.6% for March. Besides that statistic, the Commerce Department also announced some other good news: the 5.9% February slip in this category has been revised to a 1.1% gain.⁵

SEC suit sends market down. The Securities and Exchange Commission sued Goldman Sachs Group for securities fraud over the structuring and marketing of a subprime mortgage product Friday, and stock indexes fell, ending six days of gains. The Dow (+0.19%) and NASDAQ (+1.11%) still advanced for the week. The S&P 500 lost 0.19% last week.⁶

(Source: CNBC.com, BigCharts.com, ustreas.gov, bls.gov, 4/16/10)^6,7,8,9
Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be
invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends.

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These views are those of Peter Montoya Inc., and not Statler Financial Services, Inc., and should not be construed as investment advice. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is an unmanaged, market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world’s largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. Market indices discussed are unmanaged. Investors cannot invest in unmanaged indices. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If other expert assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional. Please consult your Financial Advisor for further information. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. http://www.montoyaregistry.com http://www.petermontoya.com

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Citations.
1 blogs.wsj.com/economics/2010/04/16/consumer-sentiment-turns-down-in-april [4/16/10]
2 thestreet.com/story/10725502/1/cpi-rose-01-in-march.html [4/14/10]
3 theatlantic.com/business/archive/2010/04/us-retail-sales-up-16-in-march/38917/ [4/14/10]
4 foxbusiness.com/story/markets/updateus-march-industrial-production–consensus/ [4/15/10]
5 marketwatch.com/story/march-housing-starts-on-upward-trend-2010-04-16 [4/16/10]
6 cnbc.com/id/36600359 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F16%2F09&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F15%2F05&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=DJIA&close_date=4%2F17%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=COMP&close_date=4%2F17%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
7 bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?detect=1&symbol=SPX&close_date=4%2F17%2F00&x=0&y=0 [4/16/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield.shtml [4/16/10]
8 ustreas.gov/offices/domestic-finance/debt-management/interest-rate/real_yield_historical.shtml [4/16/10]
9 treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2000/ofm11200.pdf [1/12/00]